Taking a Look at the S&P 500

On Thursday, we took a look at the bounce from support on TSLA.

For today’s chart of the day, we’re going to take a look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

The SPY is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the movement of the S&P 500 Index at 1/10 the size.

The stock market has been experiencing some profit taking after the big runup over the last few months.

Since the S&P 500 is made up of the biggest companies in the United States, it’s a good proxy to analyze for market trends. It’s also the benchmark for many funds to beat.

So is it time to buy? Let’s take a look at the daily chart of the SPY below:

The SPY signaled it was overbought after it shot out of its upper Keltner Channel in early September. Since then, it’s pulled back below its midline.

For now, it’s wiggling around, but there’s no buy signal here and now.

Each of the pullbacks since the “corona crash” have led to higher prices, so why would this one be any different?

Maybe it won’t be, but without a buy signal in place, all we’d be doing is guessing here.

Instead, we’ll put this on the watchlist.

Moving on…

There’s no dad joke of the week because I don’t feel like laughing today.

I grew up in Staten Island, only a short ferry ride away from the World Trade Center. I remember 9/11/01 like it was yesterday.

I went into my home office and booted up my trading software. The futures were down pre-market. I was licking my chops to get long once the market opened, because I was sure the market was just overreacting.

When I turned on the TV, the first plane was hanging out of the tower.

Heading back to my bedroom, I woke my wife. “You gotta see this,” I said. “Some moron flew his plane into the Twin Towers…”

If only the truth wasn’t so horrifically different.

Like every other citizen, that moment changed my life forever. And I carry guilt with me about it to this day. I was certainly not brave enough to join the armed forces or even go volunteer at Ground Zero… Instead I was just terrified.

I didn’t go broke or lose my house, and I hadn’t had kids yet to worry about. I didn’t lose any friends or family members. But it didn’t matter. Panic attacks and debilitating anxiety followed for years.

Why? I have no idea. Others experienced much worse in the wake of 9/11.

My friend Jimmy was going into the tower with his engine company when one of his fellow firefighters started having chest pains. They turned around and brought him out minutes before the tower came down. His memories of that day — as well as the hundreds of wakes and funerals he attended afterward — are certainly much more vivid than mine.

My father-in-law, who retired that July after 30+ years as an NYFD firefighter and lieutenant, had been a responding EMT on the scene. When he finally came home 12 hours or so later, my mother-in-law said it was the only time in 32 years together she saw him cry.

My youngest son turned 11 yesterday. He was a planned delivery. At the time, I’d told his mother I wanted him to be born on 9/11 but she refused, saying it was bad luck. Selfishly, I just wanted something happy to look forward to on that day.

I know it’s best to move forward, but as much as I try, I still cry every year on this day, especially when I see all the memorial specials. And I still consider myself lucky, because so many others lost so much that day.

Yup, it’s a cliché, but life is so precious, and so short. So tell someone you haven’t spoken to in a while that you love and miss them.

See you on Monday.

Trade Smart,

Michael Saul
Analyst, Chart of the Day

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