Can Trump Actually Carry Virginia? Tantalizing Evidence Suggests Maybe…

Very speculative…

I had written off Virginia. I voted for President Trump more as a hope than a realistic chance he might win. I was influenced by radio talk show host John Fredericks who has said for weeks Trump can win – behind yes but can win. His theory was that Get Out The Vote might help the President.

But there is that pesky Northern Virginia.

First I have the intriguing post from the VCDL:

Target Smart, a Democrat-leaning election data firm, has reported its analysis of early voters — and its projection of who will vote on Election Day.  It has concluded: 
President Trump can win Virginia.

Target Smart provides the following data for Virginia: 
Early Voting through 10/30/2020:   2,292,289+ ballots cast
DEM  1,109,287 (48.4%)    REP   872,623 (38.1%)    Other   310,379 (13.5%)

Of estimated total turnout in Virginia, based on past performance, 53% have already voted, leaving 46% to vote on Election Day with 1% no opinion.

Voters left to vote on Election Day:  REP 55%   DEM 30%    IND 15%
Election Day Voters Preference:  Trump 59%    Biden 35%    Jorgensen 4% (Libertarian).  

In short, Target Smart concludes that President Trump is looking at a four-point lead in Virginia IF he gets a solid Republican turnout.  

The VCDL (or TargetSmart) is actually citing a post called Statespoll and while they do not predict the Old Dominion is going for the President, they do have it in a moderately Dem status (They use Tilt/Lean/Likely and Virginia is Lean Dem).

Statespoll, Pollwatch 2020 and Larry Schweikart (A bit more strident than I am fully comfortable) are alternative information sites for contrarian views of this election. I recommend EVERY Trump voter get out in vote today and have a MSN news blackout.

Larry Schweikart says in a very recent tweet:

VA is NOT out of reach. Student shortfall + black shortfall + Trump-voting blacks + crazy #s from whites, over 50, men and non-college may be enough.

This is my feel; VA still likely for the Dems but vote as it it matters, Because it does!