Used Car Prices Hit New Record High, Signals CPI’s ‘Non-Transitory’ Surge Is Not Over Yet

Putting “team transitory” (comprising mainly of pro-Fed, pro-Biden commentators) to shame is another significant jump in wholesale used car prices, continuing to make new record highs. The latest data from Manheim shows how the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September print for used cars and trucks index is about to soar. 

The Manheim U.S. Used Vehicle Value Index increased 8.3% in the first 15 days of October compared to September. From a year ago, the index is up a whopping 37%. 

Much of the surging used car prices have primarily been a function of global supply chain woes impacting new vehicle production, forcing consumers to buy on the second-hand market. Another factor has been falling inventories at dealerships forcing them to continue accumulating used cars to replenish inventories as new car output slumps.

Manheim data reveals the lag between high-frequency data and traditional data at the BLS. We noted after last month’s CPI print that “used cars will turn higher in coming months as Manheim wholesale prices rebounded, ending a 3-mo streak of declines and modestly surpassing the prior high.” 

As for the transitory camp, the latest surge in used car and truck prices may continue pushing up consumer prices that are weighing on consumer sentiment. 

For much of 2021, surging used car prices have dented buying sentiment among prospective buyers. 

There are still no signs of used car prices slowing down as supply chain disruptions and global chip shortages persist. This week, there’s a new report that aluminum, used in engine blocks, transmission cases, frames, paneling, and much more, could be in short supply in the months ahead. So for the next CPI print, expect used car prices to be hot.