WTI Holds Gains After Crude Build, Biden Admin SPR-Refill News

Oil prices ended the day higher after bouncing off yesterday’s lows with help from lower CPI prompting less fear of monetary tightness (more demand) as well as late-day news that the Biden administration plans to purchase about 12 million barrels of oil this year as it begins to refill its drastically depleted SPR (which includes the 3mm already noted – so barely a blip in the 700 million barrel reserve).

“The DOE seems to be looking to replenish the Reserve in a series of small nibbles rather than big bites, perhaps to minimize upside pressure on crude in the summer driving season (and the Presidential election season),” Washington-based consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners wrote in a note to clients.

OPEC’s influential Monthly Oil Market Report also offered price support as the cartel maintained its 2023 demand forecast at 2.3-million barrels per day above 2022 levels, offsetting concerns over weak physical demand and recession worries that a day earlier pushed prices to lowest since March despite Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut output by one-million barrels per day for July.

“Futures markets continue to signal weakness in the physical market despite Saudi warnings, but the macroeconomic outlook will need to stabilize before that changes,” Saxo Bank noted.

Last week saw large product builds (and stocks at Cushing rising) while crude inventories slipped very modestly lower.

API

• Crude +1.024mm (-300k exp)

• Cushing +1.502mm

• Gasoline +2.075mm (+100k exp)

• Distillates +1.394mm (+1.0mm exp)

API reports a small 1.02mm barrel build in crude inventories last week. Cushing stocks also rose as did product inventories…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering just above $69 ahead of the API print and held those gains after the data…

Finally, bear in mind that over the last 11 weeks – while publicly discussing ‘buying’ oil to refill SPR – the Biden admin has sold over 18 million barrels…

So talk of a 12mm buy this year is just risible.