Economic collapse? Or more Chicken Little with intent?

More hyperbolic fearmongering? Or is there something for real here?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a government-run, government-supporting, micro-management sort of institution. It exists to empower government and has always done so. Whatever reports they issue have to be judged not just on accuracy and professional competence but on what political points they are pushing and who is pushing their buttons.

So, when the IMF releases its least optimistic report in the last 50 years, should alarm bells should go off for everyone? And most important, why? IMF’s projected global economic growth for 2024-2025 is just 2.8%, and for the next five years (2024-2029) is only 3%. That is low, very low, even with many advanced nations now seeing declines in population. Several comments have stated that the scariest part is that this estimate is likely very optimistic. It could be much lower.

In a separate report (reported by Bloomberg but published on Yahoo), the IMF has tagged the US, UK, Italy, and China as threatening the world economy because of their insanely-high public debt levels. The US (the FedGov) leads the way, of course. “The astronomical rise in the U.S. national debt poses “significant risks” to the global economy and threatens to continue fueling high inflation… In its latest Fiscal Monitor, the Washington-based institution said that it expects the U.S. to record a fiscal deficit of 7.1% in 2025 – more than triple the level in other advanced economies.”

So all this are a reasons for being alarmed. IF their data and their analysis and their conclusions are honest. Economic collapse could be only another bridge, volcano, earthquake, or fresh shooting war away.

Stagnant, barely-there economic growth will hit everyone on the planet. Unsustainable debt is not just a stinking albatross around your neck: it is staggering around under the rotting corpse of a water buffalo on your back.

Countries and economies that are tottering on the brink could fall right off. Places like China, as it continues to lie to itself and the world about what a wonderful economy they’ve had for a quarter-century. Places like Russia, trying to keep afloat in desperate gambles that (so far) are a wash. Places like dozens in Africa and a half-dozen in Latin America. And places like California and Maryland and for that matter, Quebec and Ontario.

The response to what is in essence a stagnant world economy is to react just as governments and voters have for a century and more: panic leading to more government control, even more government spending (and therefore debt), and more pie-in-the-sky and freaky solutions pushed. And panicked people voting for the powerful pushing these things.

Frankly, that is even more reason to be alarmed.

IF the IMF is right in their report. But what if they are not?

What if that overreaction is exactly what IMF is pushing?

After all, in many ways, the world is coming apart. Traditional systems have and are unraveling, and most of this can be laid at the feet of governments at all levels. But especially in the most powerful and wealthy nations: the ones that control the IMF and use it to support and extend their power.

Many people believe that the States can survive through – even thrive through – this still slow but on-going transition. Even if much of the world endures economic collapse. But only IF we have a modicum of freedom. Freedom not just to respond but to prepare.

Which seems to be precisely what both sides of the UniParty in Congress and the various State Houses wants to take away from us.

There are those who believe the collapse of the present globalized world order will give these States an opportunity to survive and thrive. To return to our roots of liberty and true progress (not the “progressivism” we here at TPOL call “regressivism” pushed by enemies of liberty). This may be the case, but only if we make wise decisions. Both as individuals (including families and businesses) and as societies: nation-states and communities.

Things to think about.

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