Mapping Out Housing Markets With Largest Federal Worker Exposure

“It’s beginning to look a lot like 2008—at least for home builders,” Nick Gerli, CEO and founder of real estate analytics firm Reventure Consulting, wrote on X earlier this week, referring to the buildup in new housing inventory. Gerli’s comment came just a day before housing data on Tuesday showed that new home supply had surged to an 18-year high.

It’s beginning to look a lot like 2008.

At least for home builders.

I took this picture outside a home building site 45 min north of Tampa.

They had over 20 vacant spec houses completed for sale. And are advertising 0% down mortgages to try to move the inventory. pic.twitter.com/eb8a5R1n4z

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) March 24, 2025

Meanwhile…

4) Meanwhile – large builders like Lennar are reporting their biggest use of incentives in over a decade.https://t.co/bGNSokaaAB

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) March 24, 2025

Shifting the focus to Mid-Atlantic housing markets with the highest exposure to federal workers, Gerli identified the top metro areas with a federal worker concentration three to five times higher than average. 

Topping the list is Lexington, Maryland, where 12.5% of all workers—roughly 13,200—are employed in federal government jobs. It’s followed by Washington, D.C., with 266,400 federal jobs, accounting for about 9.4% of all employment, and Baltimore, Maryland, with 77,500 federal jobs, or roughly 5.5% of the workforce.

Gerli asked, “Will government layoffs negatively impact home prices in these markets?” 

Housing markets with the most federal worker exposure.

These metros have a 3-5x higher federal worker concentration than normal.

Will government layoffs negatively impact home prices in these markets? pic.twitter.com/pesNEUA7EM

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) March 26, 2025

“The average metro area has about 1.4% of the workforce in Federal Jobs. So these markets are significantly higher. Lots of military towns. And of course D.C./Virginia/Maryland,” the founder and also analyst of Reventure said. 

Doge-fueled layoffs will have the most impact across the Mid-Atlantic region—particularly in Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C., and Maryland. There are estimates that DOGE has terminated 200,000 federal workers over the last two months, with cuts being announced weekly. 

Trimming the bloated federal government of waste and fraud will come at a cost, and that’s likely an economic downturn for the D.C. swamp. 

The latest data from Bright MLS, a multiple listing service for the Atlantic area, reported weekly data through March 23, showing that active listings are piling up. 

Active listings in D.C. are surging, well above trends seen in the last several years for this time of year, as the spring selling season is underway. 

Cracks in the housing market—particularly in new housing supply—warrant close monitoring. Equally important is keeping an eye on housing markets with high exposure to federal workers being cut by DOGE. The pain train is coming for the swamp.