Str-Eye-ke For A Str-Eye-ke
By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank
This weekend’s events cast fresh doubts over the value of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
On Friday, President Trump condemned the drone attack on a container ship that was transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had shot down three other drones, adding that “obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement.”
What followed was a series of eye-for-an-eye strikes. The US targeted Iranian military sites in retaliation for the attack on the container ship. And on Saturday, the US hit Iran again after the country attacked a tanker transporting Qatari oil.
Both sides have since agreed to halt their attacks and have said that further peace talks in Doha must go on. Or, that is what US officials believe, at least: “Our understanding is that both sides will rejected the framework agreement signed by Israel and Lebanon as a “surrender of sovereignty.”
Even if a number of ships is willing to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, the likely presence of sea mines limits the capacity of the strait. The CEO of NYK Lines told the FT that “the routes available for navigation are extremely limited,” adding that traffic will not return to normal “for months.”
The war between Russia and Ukraine may exacerbate global fuel shortages. Putin admitted that Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure are having effect. The Russian president acknowledged that businesses and motorists are facing fuel shortages, and he indicated that problems are likely to persist due to refinery outages: “the right type of gasoline isn’t always available right now.” The government is discussing measures, including a possible ban on diesel exports.
So, uncertainty about fuel supply remains high. Together with concerns about new US import tariffs, that’s driving shipping costs to new highs.
Last month, the US administration unveiled plans for Tyler Durden Mon, 06/29/2026 – 10:00
Source: https://freedombunker.com/2026/06/29/str-eye-ke-for-a-str-eye-ke/
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