By 2050, The World’s Most-Populous Cities Will All Be In Africa Or Asia

Across 150 years, familiar urban giants rise, fall, and give way to a new generation of megacities.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Gabriel Cohen, ranks the 15 most populous cities worldwide from 1950 to 2100 using population estimates from the European Commission’s JRC via Our World in Data. City boundaries were consistently defined based on satellite imagery and population data.

The Transatlantic Era

Tokyo led the 1950 ranking with 12.6 million people, followed by New York with 9.3 million.

The Big Apple was not the only massive Western city at the time. Of the 15 most populous cities in 1950, over half were found in either Europe or the Americas. This included London (7.9 million), Moscow (5.5 million), and Paris (5.4 million).

The table below ranks the 15 most populous cities in 1950:

Rank	City	Population in 1950 (Millions)	Region
1	Tokyo	12.6	Asia
2	New York City	9.3	North America
3	Osaka	8.0	Asia
4	London	7.9	Europe
5	Kolkata	6.1	Asia
6	Moscow	5.5	Europe
7	Paris	5.4	Europe
8	Buenos Aires	4.6	South America
9	Los Angeles	4.0	North America
10	Jakarta	3.9	Asia
11	Mumbai	3.8	Asia
12	Mexico City	3.7	North America
13	Cairo	3.1	Africa
14	Shanghai	3.1	Asia
15	São Paulo	3.1	South America

The rankings began changing quickly over the following decades. By 1975, London had fallen out of the top 15, while Paris (7.4 million) and Los Angeles (7.7 million) had also slipped in rank.

The second half of the 20th century also saw the rise of Latin American metropolises such as São Paulo and Mexico City, which by 2000 had surpassed New York as the most populous cities in the hemisphere.

The Rise of Asia

By 2000, Asia dominated the upper reaches of the ranking.

Tokyo maintained its lead at 30.3 million inhabitants, while Guangzhou had climbed to third with 19 million and New Delhi to sixth with 18 million.

Urbanization and a continental population boom continued, and by 2025 all but one of the 10 most populous cities worldwide were in Asia. The sole exception was Cairo, with 25.6 million people.

Rank	City	Population in 2025 (Millions)	Region
1	Jakarta	41.9	Asia
2	Dhaka	36.6	Asia
3	Tokyo	33.4	Asia
4	New Delhi	30.2	Asia
5	Shanghai	29.6	Asia
6	Guangzhou	27.6	Asia
7	Cairo	25.6	Africa
8	Manila	24.7	Asia
9	Kolkata	22.5	Asia
10	Seoul	22.5	Asia
11	Karachi	21.4	Asia
12	Mumbai	20.2	Asia
13	São Paulo	18.9	South America
14	Bangkok	18.2	Asia
15	Mexico City	17.7	North America

The World in 2100

By 2100, Dhaka is projected to rank first with 55 million people, followed by Jakarta at 49.7 million and Karachi at 43.7 million. Tokyo, the world’s largest city in 1950 and 2000, is projected to fall to ninth place with 24.1 million residents.

Rank	City	Population in 2100P (Millions)	Region
1	Dhaka	55.0	Asia
2	Jakarta	49.7	Asia
3	Karachi	43.7	Asia
4	Cairo	36.7	Africa
5	New Delhi	32.0	Asia
6	Luanda	30.7	Africa
7	Lahore	24.8	Asia
8	Shanghai	24.7	Asia
9	Tokyo	24.1	Asia
10	Manila	22.4	Asia
11	Mumbai	21.5	Asia
12	Kolkata	20.5	Asia
13	Dar es Salaam	20.1	Africa
14	Guangzhou	18.1	Asia
15	Lagos	17.9	Africa

Cairo will remain the most populous city outside of Asia, with 36.7 million people. It will be joined in the upper rankings by other African megacities including Luanda (30.7 million), Dar es Salaam (20.1 million), and Lagos (17.9 million).

Tokyo is projected to see its population fall below its 1975 level as declining birth rates contribute to long-term population decline.

To learn more about national population growth, check out The Top 10 Countries Driving Future Population Growth on Voronoi.