“Get Long And Buckle Up”: Jeff Currie Says Commodity Bull Market Entering Next Leg

The breadth of the commodity advance is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Quantix Commodity Index

Diesel crack spreads have surged above $100, copper is trading above $14,000 a ton in London, gold and silver are accelerating amid US Treasury market intervention, and the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index is surging higher. At the same time, the dollar weakened sharply following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s intervention this week, providing an additional tailwind to the commodity complex.

According to veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie, the convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement, and policy intervention represents the hallmark of a structural commodity bull cycle.

Currie, the former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and now co-chair of Abaxx Markets, wrote in a ten-post thread on X that commodities are the clear winners as physical bottlenecks materialize around the world and Treasury market interventions add to those tailwinds.

Currie began the thread:

Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and yesterday the Treasury confirmed it.

Scarcity in the physical world. Repression in the financial one. Scarcity pushes prices up. Repression holds yields down. The gap between them is the debasement.

Commodities are the only asset class that wins on both sides. The structural case for commodities has been turbo charged.

Underinvestment, deglobalization and electrification all pushing markets like diesel cracks and copper to new highs.

Meanwhile the chokepoints are increasing, from Hormuz to the Red Sea, the Rhine, the Panama Canal, the Black Sea grain corridor and Russian refining capacity. It is becoming increasingly apparent that not a single one of those is reachable by anything in Washington’s toolkit whether it be caused by war or weather.

The illusion of abundance is likely behind us. I said as much on CNBC this Monday, and I got long gold, silver and agriculture last week.

Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and yesterday the Treasury confirmed it.

Scarcity in the physical world. Repression in the financial one.

Scarcity pushes prices up. Repression holds yields down. The gap between them is the debasement.

Commodities are the…

— Jeffrey Currie ++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

Here’s a summary of Currie’s bull thesis for commodities:

1. Bond market intervention: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled long-bond buybacks one day after the 30-year yield hit 5.32%, its highest level since 2007, and only two weeks after the quarterly schedule was released. Currie says this is the last lever after a sequence of interventions: SPR draws that reduced inventories below 300 million barrels, dollar backstops for foreign holders in Japan and the Gulf, and FX intervention involving the euro and yen for the first time since 1998. The market reaction was immediate: Gold rose 4% to $4,510, silver gained 5%, and the Quantix Commodity Index reached an all-time high.

I don’t care what you want to call it. A sovereign that has to buy its own bonds to set the price has already conceded that the market won’t.

Yesterday Scott Bessent doubled long-bond buybacks, two weeks after publishing the quarterly schedule and one day after the 30-year hit…

— Jeffrey Currie ++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

2. Stop watching Brent and WTI: The economy runs on gasoline and diesel. That consumption-weighted basket is around $165 versus $85 WTI. Inflation breakevens and the bond market are reading the wrong screen. Watch the next three CPI prints.

Stop looking at crude. Nobody consumes it but refineries.

The economy runs on gasoline and diesel, and that consumption weighted basket costs $165 against $85 WTI.

Breakevens are being priced off the one barrel nobody consumes. The bond market is reading inflation off the wrong…

— Jeffrey Currie ++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

Related:

• Jeff Currie: Forget $91 Brent, The Real Crisis Is $170 Diesel

3. It’s all about the crack spread: Diesel cracks settled above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, reaching $102.20. That is four to six times the normal range, with records set in five of the last six sessions. The cause is a refining shortage, with global runs down around 5 million barrels per day because of Ukrainian strikes on Russian plants, Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern facilities, and chronic underinvestment. Crude can drift while refined products print records.

The diesel crack is the tell.

It settled above $100 a barrel this week for the first time in history, reaching $102.20. That is four to six times its normal range, with records hit in five of the last six sessions.

What lies behind it? A refining shortage. Global runs are down…

— Jeffrey Currie ++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

4. Treasury supply problem: Foreign holdings fell in June, led by Japan, China, and the UK. The July deficit reached $432 billion, interest costs hit $1.1 trillion, and debt is approaching $40 trillion, while hyperscaler AI-capex issuance is competing for the same pool of savings. The marginal buyer is waiting for higher yields. Yesterday’s buyback represents a managed, failing auction.

The Treasury market has a problem: it cannot comfortably clear its own supply. And scarcity only exacerbates the problem.

Foreign holdings fell in June, led by Japan, China and the UK. Against that, you can add a July deficit of $432 billion, interest costs that have surged to…

— Jeffrey Currie ++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

5. Broken feedback loop: Normally, a commodity spike forces yields higher, followed by demand destruction and self-correction. Repression has cut the brake line. Scarcity feeds inflation, repression prevents the response, and the absence of a response amplifies the scarcity bid.

Repression cuts the brake line.

Normally when such a situation occurs, the bond market disciplines a commodity spike. We are familiar with the cycle: yields rise, demand slows, the spike self-corrects.

But not this time.

The cycle has broken down: scarcity feeds inflation,…

— Jeffrey Currie ++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

6. Diesel underpins everything: “Every other commodity is dirt plus diesel.” Containers, tractors, locomotives, mine trucks, and fertilizer all depend on diesel. The energy input sets the floor for metals, grains, and other commodities. This explains why the QCI can reach an all-time high while crude remains $30 below its peak. Corn is already up 10% on the week. Pass-through into trucking, food, and producer prices is just beginning.

Every other commodity is dirt plus diesel.

Diesel is the cost base of everything. Every container, every tractor, every locomotive, every
mine truck – you get the idea.

The energy input sets the price floor for metals, grains and fertiliser, which is how QCI prints an all-time…

— Jeffrey Currie ++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

7. Refining problem: There are too many crude barrels and not enough refining capacity. The possible resolution paths include demand destruction through high product prices, crude rebalancing as the current glut remains partly MoU-related, or a recovery in refining activity. If runs recover and refiners bid for the missing 5 million barrels per day of feedstock, the shortage will migrate upstream, causing crude to rally as cracks compress. The net cost to consumers stays high either way. There is no SPR for diesel or gasoline. Bears have been promising supply for more than two years, while the petroleum total-return index has doubled and retail prices remain near all-time highs.

There is no clean bearish resolution.

The market is telling you there are too many barrels of crude and not enough refining capacity.

Either demand will be destroyed through higher product prices, or crude will rebalance (right now we are likely processing a momentary glut from…

— Jeffrey Currie ++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

8/9. Widening chokepoints and El Niño: Hormuz has been constrained for six months, Russian refining remains under sustained Ukrainian attack, the Red Sea still requires a detour, the Rhine is at a record low amid heat waves, and the Panama Canal’s allowable draft has fallen to 47.5 feet. In the Black Sea, all three Novorossiysk terminals are shut, leaving 97% of Azov-Black Sea export capacity offline during peak season. Simultaneously, the USDA cut its US corn-yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre and reduced ending stocks by 15%. Food has joined fuel. A record El Niño probability, including NOAA’s 81% chance of a very strong event by year-end, adds further stress through drier conditions in Panama, weaker Asian monsoons, and pressure on Brazil’s planting window. The system has no redundancy left.

Whether it is weather or war, the issues are widening and deepening. Hormuz has been constrained for six months and counting. Russian refining is regularly under fire from Ukrainian strikes and there’s no sign of that slowing down. The Red Sea is still a detour.

Record European…

— Jeffrey Currie ++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

10. Conclusion: Scarcity is repricing the numerator, while repression is debasing the denominator. Own what benefits from both: product markets, grains, and freight for the scarcity leg, and gold for the debasement leg. Gold is at $4,510 versus the earlier January high of $5,600 referenced above. The bond market will spend the next six months discovering what product markets already know. Expect more volatility and higher highs across more markets.

Scarcity is repricing the numerator; repression is debasing the denominator. Own what benefits from both.

The commodity complex carries the scarcity leg – products, grains, freight. Gold carries the debasement leg: $4,510 today against a January record of $5,600, and every…

— Jeffrey Currie ++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

Currie concluded by saying, “Get long and buckle up: the next leg of the ride will see more vol with higher highs across more markets.”