Rate-Hike Odds Tumble As US Consumer Price Inflation Prints Slowest Since Pre-War

July’s ongoing decline in oil prices (before the late July/early August rebound) should support lower prices in today’s CPI print (with portfolio management impacts expected to be a bigger upside deal for PCE as stocks soared) but expectations were for an uneventful 0.1% MoM rise in the headline print.

And the print was perfectly in line, rising 0.,1% MoM and 3.4% YoY (down from +3.5% in June) – the lowest since March…

With Goods inflation flat at 0.8% YoY and Services inflation slowing to +3.0% YoY…

Under the hood, Energy was the biggest deflationary driver while Medical Care Services rose the most…

Energy still deflationary MoM with Core Services inflationary MoM…

CPI Highlights:

The index for shelter rose 0.1% in July, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly all items increase. The index for food also increased 0.1% over the month, as the index for food away from home increased 0.3%. In contrast, the energy index declined 1.5%in July

• CPI Core rose 0.2% after being unchanged in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, communication, education, and recreation. Conversely, the index for motor vehicle insurance was among the major indexes that decreased in July.

• CPI rose 3.4% for the 12 months ending July after rising 3.5% in June. CPI Core rose 2.5% over the year, following a 2.6% increase over the 12 months ending June. The energy index increased 14.7% for the 12 months ending July. The food index increased 3.0% over the last year.

Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (as expected) with annual growth slowing to 2.48% - its lowest since February…

Core CPI Details, MoM change:

• The shelter index increased 0.1% over the month, as it did in June.

• The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% in July as did the index for rent.

• The lodging away from home index fell 2.8% over the month.

• The medical care index increased 0.4% in July after falling 0.1% in June.

• The index for hospital services increased 0.5% over the month, and the index for physicians’ services increased 0.2%.

• Conversely, the prescription drugs index decreased 0.8% in July.

• The index for airline fares increased 2.2% over the month after rising 0.2% in June.

• The communication index rose 0.6% in July, and the education index increased 0.5%.

• The index for recreation increased 0.2% in July, and the index for used cars and trucks rose 0.4%.

• The indexes for new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, and apparel also increased over the month.

• The motor vehicle insurance index declined 0.3% in July after falling 2.0% in June.

• The index for personal care was unchanged in July.

Core CPI Details, YoY change

• The shelter index increased 3.2% over the last year.

• Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include airline fares (+25.5%), medical care (+1.7%), recreation (+2.6%), and household furnishings and operations (+2.2%).

Key Segments:

CPI Food:

The food index rose 0.1% in July, after rising 0.2% in June. The index for food at home decreased 0.1% over the month. Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased in July. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index decreased 0.7% over the month as the pork index declined 1.5%. The index for fruits and vegetables decreased 0.1 percent in July as the index for lettuce fell 16.4 percent. The dairy and related products index decreased 0.1 percent over the month. The index for other food at home was unchanged in July. In contrast, the nonalcoholic beverages index rose 0.9 percent in July after falling 1.5 percent in June. The index for cereals and bakery products increased 0.2 percent over the month.

CPI Energy:

The index for energy decreased 1.5% in July, after falling 5.7% in June. The gasoline index decreased 2.9% over the month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices decreased 2.1% in July.) Conversely, the index for natural gas increased 0.7% in July, and the index for electricity rose 0.1% .

July’s decline in oil prices helped (but does that mean August will see reflation in the Energy CPI component)…

CPI Shelter:

• Shelter Inflation rose 3.18% in July, down from 3.28% in June after a 0.1% increase MoM

• Rent inflation rose 2.86% YoY in July, up from 2.84% in June after a 0.23% increase MoM

The much-watched SuperCore CPI (Core Services Ex Shelter) fell to +2.78% YoY – the lowest since Sept 2021…

If JPM’s scenario analysis is right, we should see a modest rise in the S&P 500 today…

• Core MoM prints above 0.30%. SPX declines 1.5% – 2.5%, odds: 5.0%

• Core MoM prints between 0.25% – 0.30%. SPX declines 50bp – 1.25%, odds; 25.0%

• Core MoM prints between 0.20% – 0.25%. SPX gains 25bp – 75bp, odds; 40.0%

• Core MoM prints between 0.15% – 0.20%. SPX gains 50bp – 1%, odds: 25.0%

• Core MoM prints below 0.15%. SPX gains 1% – 2%, odds: 5.0%

And rate-hike odds (for September predominantly) are tumbling lower…

Besides, what exactly will hiking rates do to stall a commodity supply issue? (sorry, off topic).

Overall, UBS says today’s report was fairly close to expectations and is consistent with the view that US inflation peaked in May and is edging down, though that slowing it likely to be uneven.