Carney Says He Studied Prospect Of US Invading Canada Under Trump: “Extreme Tail Risk”

In a wild and unexpected comment, but which illustrates how tense things remain between Canada and the Trump administration on the trade front, the country’s Prime Minister Mark Carney bluntly stated in a new interview he had geared up for an “extreme tail risk” of a US invasion.

In a New York Times interview published Wednesday Carney was questioned on his reaction to President Trump’s eyeing a takeover of Canada. The US President at one point in the recent past even discussed the possibility of it becoming the “51st” state while looking directly at Carney in the Oval Office.

Trump spent much of Carney’s first year as prime minister calling him “governor” – or at other times issuing provocative remarks like “A lot of people in Canada are liking becoming our beautiful, cherished 51st state. They’ll have to pay much lower taxes, they’ll have the ultimate security. They don’t pay very much for security right now because they rely on us.”

After absorbing a lot of insults Carney is perhaps belatedly trying to hit back, or else he’s getting more serious with is ribbing and pushback against Washington:

“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk. That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case,” Carney told the Times, adding that “it would be irresponsible not to” be prepared.

But this latter reference to being ‘prepared’ seems much more than just empty banter or mockery. It could mark the first time in modern history that a sitting Canadian leader is seriously and openly speculating on the question of future US invasion or military attack.

The terse (or mocking?) comments come after earlier this month Carney suggested his country got too comfortable with long depending on “easy” economic links with the United States.

“The past 40 years has been a period of deeper economic integration with the United States. Truth is, it was easy business, but it meant we relied too much on one economic partner. It’s clear that time is over,” Carney said at the time.

“This is why our plan, since I came into office, has been development and diversification, not denial, waiting to go back to some good old days, and not continued dependence,” he added.

According to more from the NY Times interview with Carney…

The prime minister said that despite the turbulence in the US-Canada relationship he speaks to President Trump “frequently” and has spoken to him “a number of times” since trade talks broke down on Aug. 21.

Already some quick Canadian media backlash in response to the ‘extreme tail risk’ comment:

If Mark Carney did indeed prepare for the highly unlikely event of the U.S. invading Canada (which is what an ‘extreme tail risk’ of such an event means) perhaps he could have informed the Canadian people of this through some method other than an interview in the New York Times. https://t.co/Te1CPpVIK4

— Lorrie Goldstein (@sunlorrie) September 24, 2026

As for some other specifics on the implications of broken trade relations which dovetail with military issues, Carney conceded that his government is mulling alternatives to buying American F-35 fighter jets. Plans to obtain a full fleet of the US stealth fighters are still under political review by his government.