China Will Dominate Global Nuclear Energy Through 2035, Analyst Says

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

The future of nuclear energy is in China’s hands. While the United States remains the world’s largest producer of nuclear energy, China’s sector is growing at such a rapid clip that it is expected to overtake France as well as the United States to become the world’s leading nuclear power producer within the next decade. In addition to this rapid expansion of traditional nuclear power capacity, Beijing has also quickly become the global leader in a broad and diverse range of advanced nuclear power technologies.

“By a wide margin, China will have the world’s most dynamic and significant nuclear industry through 2035,” Damien Ma, energy lead analyst for Gavekal Technologies, wrote in a recent report, as quoted by the South China Morning Post. “Construction efficiencies mean China can build a new plant in about six years, compared with more than a decade for the latest Vogtle reactors in the US,” Ma went on to say.

The United States has added just one nuclear plant in the last decade, Georgia’s long-delayed, over-budget, and controversial Plant Vogtle. Over the same time, China added a staggering 34 gigawatts of capacity. And, Beijing’s latest five year plan shows that China has no intentions of slowing down.

“With innovation and security as its leading themes, the latest FYP illuminates how nuclear energy underpins multiple strategic priorities for China in the context of not only energy security but also technological innovation and global engagement,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a nonprofit policy research organization and bipartisan think tank recently reported.

The Chinese government has been eager to build up the most advanced nuclear power sector in the world as a part of Beijing’s broader bid to establish lasting dominance in the global energy sector by becoming the world’s first electrostate. Building the world’s most advanced nuclear energy fleet is a part of this goal, and includes innovative approaches to how nuclear reactors are designed, deployed, and fueled.

“From the world’s first in-reactor thorium breeding confirmation to a dual PWR-HTGR plant and commercial supercritical CO2 generation, China is assembling a vertically integrated advanced nuclear ecosystem,” Power Magazine reported in March of this year. “The breadth of activity signals a coordinated push toward fuel independence and industrial deployment.”

The United States has also been bullish about building up and advancing its aging nuclear sector. The Trump administration has publicized its intentions to “produce lasting American dominance in the global nuclear energy market” and is likewise bullish on developing next-gen nuclear reactors and nuclear fusion technology on its own home turf. Similarly to China, the United States is also fighting to free itself from international nuclear fuel supply chains, and is attempting to do so by building up domestic uranium extraction and enrichment capacities. But the United States’ advanced nuclear sector is lagging far behind China when it comes to spending and technological knowhow.

But while China is historically quite secretive about its technological advancements and cutting-edge energy sector developments, this week Beijing made a surprising move to share its expertise with the rest of the world. This week, China signed a deal with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to more freely share its knowledge on high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) with other countries. HGTRs are a form of advanced fourth-generation reactor that is capable of producing nuclear energy at extremely high temperatures, opening avenues for use in a variety of industrial applications.

The new deal “covers cooperation in HTGR research and development, reactor design, construction, commissioning and operation,” as well as the exchange of “information on supply chains and personnel training,” according to a recent Interesting Engineering report. “The deal could give other countries greater access to China’s engineering experience with HTGRs as interest grows in nuclear systems that can provide both electricity and high-temperature industrial heat.”

This development is a promising starting point for a more cooperative approach to what is indeed a borderless problem – climate change and the growing problem of artificial intelligence’s energy demand growth. Advanced nuclear energy systems could provide a critical lifeline by offering clean energy 24 hours a day, seven days a week.