‘Worse Than COVID’: Consumer Confidence Crashes In September

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plunged in September (-6.7pt to 81.9) - the lowest headline print since April 2014.

The Present Situation Index fell sharply, while the Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory.

This was the fourth straight monthly miss for confidence and the biggest miss since Dec 2024…

“Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.”

Perceptions of current employment conditions also softened, with the labor market differential – the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get” – retreating tumbling to its lowest since Feb 2021…

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence across all age groups and nearly all income groups trended downward.

While higher-income groups remained generally more optimistic, those with a household income of $125,000-$149,000 reported the greatest decline in confidence over the last six months.

By generation, confidence for Gen Z, followed by Millennials, remained the highest on a six-month moving average basis.

Confidence continued to weaken among the three oldest generations – Generation X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation.

Confidence fell in September across all political affiliations - Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations also jumped in September to 6.1% and 5.1% respectively.

The share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates over the next 12 months jumped by 5.2 ppts to 68.4%. Consumers still largely expected stock prices to rise in the next 12 months, but optimism moderated in September.

Finally, consumers’ write-in responses regarding factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September: 

“References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs.

Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated. Consumers also frequently cited politics, trade, and employment in their write-in responses, though to a lesser extent.”

Not pretty… especially into the Midterms.