Democrats Retreat From House Races They Hoped To Flip

History favors the party out of power in a midterm, but one problem has dogged the Democratic Party for months, and it’s now undermining their plans to win as many seats as possible: money.

House Majority PAC, the main super PAC supporting House Democrats, has begun pulling advertising money from several Republican-leaning districts where the party has not gained ground, according to a report from Axios. Both HMP and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) have struggled to keep pace with Republican fundraising throughout the cycle. With limited funds late in an expensive midterm, the group must now choose which seats to contest.

The steepest proportional cut came in Tennessee’s 5th District, where HMP reduced its October ad reservations from nearly $1.6 million to just over $500,000 as of Monday, according to AdImpact and a source familiar with the matter. That’s roughly a two-thirds reduction. According to Axios, Democrats had viewed Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder as a strong contender until redistricting moved the seat to the right and Rep. Andy Ogles lost his primary to former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Trump carried the redrawn district by 21 points in 2024, and the Cook Political Report rates it “solidly Republican.”

In Florida’s 7th District, the group halved its reservations Monday, from $3.9 million to $1.95 million. Former local news anchor Ryan Elijah defeated Rep. Cory Mills in the Republican primary and now faces Democrat Bale Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff and a recruit in the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program. Cook rates the race “likely Republican.” The DCCC released a poll Tuesday showing the two candidates tied at 45%.

HMP also cut its Colorado 3rd District spending from more than $2.1 million last week to under $1.1 million as of Monday. The seat grew harder for Democrats after Rep. Lauren Boebert left it and Rep. Jeff Hurd took office last year. Party operatives said Democrat Dwayne Romero, a real estate CEO and Army veteran, has not built the kind of momentum Jessica Killin has generated in the neighboring 5th District.

In addition to those reductions, HMP made partial cuts, which the group calls “shaves,” in long-shot races it has not abandoned. That list includes Arizona’s 2nd District, where Rep. Eli Crane faces former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez in a rematch, and Texas’ 23rd District, where Republican YouTuber Brandon Herrera faces Democratic lawyer Katy Padilla Stout. Cook rates both races “likely Republican.”

With money being tight, the group also scaled back in districts where it expects Democrats to win. Those include the seats held by Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.), which Cook rates “likely Democratic,” along with the open seats of retiring Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.), which Democrats increasingly believe they can flip.

This reallocation will allow the House Majority PAC to consolidate resources into battlegrounds it still considers winnable, which includes some districts Trump won by double digits in 2024. The group added at least $4.7 million across nearly two dozen districts over two days, according to Axios.

The House reallocation follows a Politico report earlier this month finding that Democrats also lack the cash to expand their Senate map. According to that report, the party has barely enough money to fund its main Senate targets in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska, the states where Democrats see Republicans as most vulnerable.

A handful of polls have shown Democratic candidates competitive in deep-red states including Kansas, Florida, South Carolina and Mississippi, prompting candidates there to press for more late-stage money. But those groups say they “don’t have enough cash to protect the core battleground and also make significant investments beyond it,” according to Politico.

The Florida reductions drew criticism from Phil Gardner, a senior adviser at Blue Dog Action, a centrist group backing Dalton.

“I’m not sure what HMP was thinking here,” Gardner said.

Gardner pointed to the DCCC’s tied poll and to House Minority Whip Katherine Clark’s plan to campaign in the district Wednesday. “The rest of the party is not triaging this seat,” he said.

Gardner said he agrees with “95% of the decisions HMP’s made this cycle.” He also called it “bonkers they’re dumping so much money” into Maine’s 2nd District “while leaving one of the party’s best recruits high and dry in Florida.” Maine also appears on Politico’s list of the party’s main Senate targets.

Blue Dog Action spent nearly $500,000 to help Dalton win his primary. The group has put no money into the general election.

“We’re focused on taking back the House,” HMP spokesperson CJ Warnke said in response to Gardner.

Gardner said he expects HMP to revisit the Florida decision before Election Day. “I’m confident they’ll rethink and make the right decision for the final week,” he said. “Bale can win and hold that seat with everyone’s help.”

Democrats enter the final stretch of the midterms trying to manage limited resources while the GOP has a lot more working for it. Republicans have the backing of cash-rich outside groups, chiefly President Trump’s MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk’s America PAC, which could make the difference in races Democrats had thought they could flip.