Iran War Pushes Trump’s Average Gasoline Prices Above Biden’s

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice,

The average price Americans have paid for gasoline during President Donald Trump’s second term has now surpassed the average recorded during Joe Biden’s presidency, marking a politically significant milestone just days before the November 3 midterm elections.

According to AAA data cited by Reuters, regular gasoline has averaged $3.472 per gallon since Trump returned to office in January 2025, compared with $3.471 during Biden’s four-year presidency.

The difference is marginal, but it represents a striking reversal for a president who campaigned on promises to bring gasoline prices below $2 per gallon.

As of Monday, October 26, AAA reported a national average of approximately $4.29 per gallon, compared with just $3.05 a year earlier.

The increase has been driven largely by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which began in February and has severely disrupted global crude oil shipments, refining operations and fuel exports from the Middle East.

Gasoline prices have risen roughly 43% since the conflict began, despite the United States remaining the world’s largest oil producer.

Meanwhile, diesel prices have climbed even more sharply. AAA data show diesel averaging approximately $6.35 per gallon, after reaching an all-time high of $6.53 in September.

As previously reported by Oilprice.com, shortages of refined products and the disruption of Middle Eastern energy supplies have placed extraordinary pressure on global fuel markets.

And significant relief before the midterms appears unlikely.

In his October 26 market update, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, reported that gasoline prices averaged $4.24 per gallon, down 22 cents from a month earlier but $1.24 higher than a year ago.

De Haan expects gasoline to remain above $4 per gallon and diesel above $6 through Election Day, despite government efforts to reduce prices.

While motorists have seen modest relief from September’s highs, continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and limited global refining capacity are keeping fuel markets under pressure.

The Trump administration has pursued several measures to ease the crisis, including efforts to increase domestic refining and secure additional diesel supplies.

However, industry executives have warned that restarting idle refineries or expanding processing capacity cannot provide immediate relief.

The latest gasoline milestone adds another challenge for the White House as Americans prepare to vote, with elevated fuel costs continuing to weigh on household budgets and broader inflation concerns.