Left Under Pressure: Bolsonaro Leads Socialist Lula In Brazil As Spain’s Sanchez Calls Snap Elections Amid Turmoil

Political developments in Brazil and Spain overnight are adding volatility to certain overseas markets, highlighting mounting pressure on failing left-wing regimes. 

In Brazil, right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead over socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva significantly strengthens his position heading into the Oct. 25 runoff. A Bolsonaro victory would shift Latin America’s largest GDP to the right, reinforcing a broader regional once-in-a-generation realignment from unhinged leftist regimes to common-sense right-wing governments.

Brazil’s political pendulum is swinging right after years of toxic socialism, and investors are cheering on Monday morning: 

BANKS, FINANCIAL FIRMS

• Banco Bradesco: +10%
• Itau Unibanco Holding: +11%
• NU Holdings: +9.5%
• Inter & Co.: +11%
• Banco Santander (Brasil): +3.5%
• PagSeguro Digital: +14%
• StoneCo: +12%
• PicS: +6.2%

STEEL, METAL & MINING

• Companhia Siderurgica Nacional: +9.5%
• Vale: +6.5%
• Gerdau S.A.: +7.0%

AERO, OIL & GAS AND OTHER SECTORS

• XP Inc.: +15%
• Ambev: +8.4%
• Embraer: +6.3%
• MercadoLibre: +7.0%
• Telefonica Brasil: +8.1%
• Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais: +7.0%
• Companhia Paranaense de Energia: +5.8%
• Petroleo Brasileiro: +7.0%
• Ultrapar Participacoes: +7.2%
• Cia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (SABESP): +9.7%
• TIM S.A.: +6.8%

Bolsonaro captured 47% of the vote against Lula’s 45.2%, with counting completed, as conservative allies dominated races across the country.

Via Bloomberg:

Polymarket:

“The magnitude of the first-round win by Flávio will come as a surprise to financial markets, and given the light positioning by foreigners, I would expect a meaningful rally in the near term as investors begin to price in a change in government, a shift in policy direction, a potential reform agenda and a reduction in fiscal risk. From a stock perspective, watch SOEs, beta and rate-sensitive names as the market starts to price in a faster reduction of interest rates in 2027,” UBS analyst Justin Wensek wrote, adding, “Market reaction: Risk-on, blue-sky scenario starting Monday.”

Goldman Sachs one-delta desk head Rich Privorotsky noted, “Flávio Bolsonaro 47.0%, Lula 45.2%… substantially better for the market than expected. Brazil should be up a lot today and the market will now front-load the second round. Worth looking through the 2nd-order Brazil plays across Europe. At least initially this should be supportive for BRL, domestic equities and risk assets across the geography.”

A Bolsonaro victory later this month would cement Latin America’s largest economy’s rightward shift and politically transform the entire continent in just a few short years. It’s fascinating to watch this shift unfold as USAID funding has dried up.

Then, in Spain, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election for Nov. 29 after parliament rejected an emergency housing package, deepening a political crisis fueled by anti-left sentiment, the migrant invasion of Ceuta, and corruption scandals.

Spain’s 10-year government bond yield was little changed at 4.08%, while its spread over German debt widened three basis points to 65 basis points. The euro fell 50bps to $1.1197 amid broader concerns over fiscal and political risks in the currency bloc.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating has collapsed amid unrest involving far-left groups and migrants, adding to his political vulnerability and strengthening Marine Le Pen ahead of next year’s presidential election.

From Brazil to Spain and France, the common understanding here is mounting voter anger at the socialist and left-wing regimes that have been nothing but disastours for the West. With USAID funding curtailed and progressive policies facing a growing backlash, the right has taken advantage of an open window to gain political ground and turn frustration into electoral gains. 

Taken altogether, the West is pushing back against socialist and pro-China governments. Latin America’s full rightward shift hinges on Brazil’s runoff results later this month, while Europe has seen right-wing political movements gain ground, especially in Germany with AfD’s rise. Nomura expects that Europe “lurches” right over the next year or so of elections.