Mushroom Cloud Over Alabama: Trump Just Pulled A Condoleezza Rice

President Trump just pulled a Condoleezza Rice. 

George W. Bush’s Secretary of State had (in)famously stated “we don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud” in September 2002 while trying to fearmonger the public into getting on board with the Iraq invasion.

On Friday night, Trump rallied supporters in Mobile, Alabama amid a tour through deep-red states to bolster Republican turnout ahead of the November midterms.

On stage, he once again defended the decision to launch a war on Iran and repeated his line that voters should pretend that he is on the ballot. On higher oil as well as painful gas prices at the pump, he reiterated that it’s a ”small price” to pay to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon. He also claimed the Iran war will “probably” end soon after the midterms. That’s when Trump proclaimed:

“But remember about the oil: You’re paying a price, but boy, is that a small price than what it would be if these lunatics were allowed to have a nuclear weapon and used it on Mobile, Alabama.”

TRUMP SAYS HIGH OIL PRICES A SMALL PRICE TO PAY, IRAN WOULD HAVE NUKED ALABAMA *** pic.twitter.com/MH17sEhNZp

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 3, 2026

We should start by noting the obvious: There is nothing in Iran’s missile arsenal capable of reaching the United States. Not a single report has even so much as ever claimed it, 

According to the Arms Control Association, the Islamic Republic does not possess operational intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and certainly has never tested one. Iran’s most advanced missiles have a long enough reach to perhaps hit central Europe, or else the remote US-UK base Diego Garcia deep in the Indian Ocean – but hitting Mobile, Alabama is absurd and an impossibility. 

However, it’s unlikely that your average Alabama voter knows this (though notably in the above clip the crowd’s response is lackluster and the applause is very weak). Even the US intelligence community knows that the idea that the Iranians could send a projectile to reach the continental US is false on its face:

There is no serious evidence to back up all the claims that have been made about Iran developing long-range rockets to deliver nuclear warheads. The U.S. intelligence community assess that Iran may be technically capable of developing an ICBM with sufficient foreign assistance, not that they are doing so. Iran has never tested any long-range rockets. Iran’s longest-range missiles are medium-range ballistic missiles, not the intercontinental-range missiles as critics will have us believe.

As far as the evidence shows, Iran is assessed to have deployed several dozen Shahab-3 and Ghadr-1 medium-range ballistic missiles with ranges up to 2,000 kilometers, as well as dozens of short-range ballistic missiles with ranges of 150 to 500 kilometers. Iran is testing a solid-fueled medium-range ballistic missile, the Sejjil-2, but that has not been tested since 2011 and the United States cannot confirm Iran’s claims that this missile is deployed.

Likely Trump is himself fully aware of all this, but when the point is fearmongering the US public into supporting the next Middle East quagmire and half-baked ‘forever war’…. well then logic, reason, and truth go out the window.

Vice President JD Vance pulled something similar not too long ago. Back in March in the opening weeks of Operation Epic Fury he implied that Iran could potentially turn a nuclear bomb into a suicide vest - another absurd claim, just based on the logistics and technical requirements alone.

Vance suggests Iran could have used nuclear suicide vests: “You talk about people who walk into a crowded supermarket and have a vest on, and they blow up the vest and a couple of people get killed, and that’s a terrible tragedy. What happens when what’s on the vest is not… pic.twitter.com/6HiCHhi4S9

— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) March 26, 2026

“You talk about people who walk into a crowded supermarket and have a vest on, and they blow up the vest and a couple of people get killed, and that’s a terrible tragedy,” Vance told a live briefing at the time. “What happens when what’s on the vest is not something that can kill a couple of people, but can kill many, many tens of thousands of people?”

As we pointed out at the time, the simple reality is that a nuclear bomb could not be miniaturized to the point where it could be worn as a vest.

Dear Trump admin, at least come up with something better than old Bush NeoCon talking points.