WTI Surges Back Near War Highs: Gasoline Inventories Surge, US Production Rebounds To Record High

Oil prices rose Wednesday as traders focused on renewed threats to Middle East energy supplies after Yemen’s Houthi militants said they targeted Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery.

The Houthis said Tuesday that they struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery in the Eastern Province with a ballistic missile.

Prospects for diplomatic talks have failed to generate significant selling interest in oil as traders increasingly focus on developments on the ground, analysts at ANZ Research said Wednesday. 

“The market is treating this with caution,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank AS.

 “With uncertainty surrounding the Israeli election and the US midterms just days away, the risk of renewed escalation remains elevated.”

The analysts said risks to crude supplies continued to increase.

“The market is pricing in a larger probability of re-escalation,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV. 

“Oil prices remain sensitive to developments in the Persian Gulf, specifically around what action, if any, the US may take following the US midterm elections.”

So what happened to US inventories?

DOE

• Crude -1.89mm
• Cushing -624k
• Gasoline +3.87mm
• Distillates -1.46mm

Crude inventories drewdown for the fourth week in a row, and stocks at Cushing saw a surprise drop as Gasoline stocks soared…

The Trump admin basically left the SPR alone for the eighth week in a row (100k barrel drain)…

US Crude production rebounded to a new record high after the hurricane-driven shut-ins…

Crude exports jumped to nearly 5 million barrels a day, the highest level seen late May. Exorbitant freight costs have been crimping demand on some routes, but it’s clear that US supplies are still being drawn abroad.

Distillates stocks remain at record lows for this time of year…

Are elevated gasoline prices finally eroding demand?

Weekly US gasoline demand declined by a sizable 624,000 barrels per day for the EIA week. While one data point doesn’t make a trend, it did slipped below the 5-year seasonal range. Meanwhile, the recent pullback in gasoline crack spread is providing some relief to US drivers. 

Average US retail gasoline prices are now at $4.25 per gallon, a drop of $0.25 per gallon from late-September. 

WTI remains back above $102…

Finally, the U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a possible short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people briefed on the conversations.