China’s ‘Silent’ War Drill: Taiwan Blockade Fears Put Conflict-Free Supply Chains In Focus

Five days after we reported, “China Rehearses Taiwan Blockade In Unannounced Naval War Drill,” Reuters appears to have caught up with our reporting about Beijing conducting unannounced war drills involving more than 100 military and coast guard vessels across the western Pacific and around Taiwan at the start of the month.

Reuters cited a Taiwanese security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, who confirmed what we reported last Sunday about China’s military and coast guard amassing ships in the region. According to the official, the exercise included simulated attacks on other militaries and cities, including Taiwan’s.

The official said the early November drills were much larger than “Justice Mission 2025,” China’s last formally named drills targeting Taiwan nearly one year ago. This suggests China could be rehearsing for shipping restrictions or even a blockade of the island or critical maritime shipping lanes in the region next year, potentially sparking supply chain concerns.

As we noted at the time, the drills came just ahead of the US midterms and next week’s APEC summit in Shenzhen, where President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet.

Reuters offered more color on the drills:

During the latest drills, a Chinese submarine also launched an intercontinental ballistic missile ​from the Yellow Sea into the Chinese mainland, the official said. “It is a silent exercise — and in effect, silent intimidation,” they said. 

“This is like a robber hiding a gun in the pocket of a coat — with the muzzle pointed at the bank teller. It scares the teller into handing over the money, while avoiding setting off the alarm and bringing in a ​large police response.”

Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo described the military drills as “area denial” exercises involving an aircraft carrier and other naval formations.

On Thursday, Xi called for peaceful “reunification” in a policy speech without mentioning the use of force. Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its territory, has not renounced military action to bring the island under its control.

Beijing could pursue this move without military force by first using coast guard inspections, shipping restrictions, and selective interdictions, presenting them as domestic law enforcement around the island. CSIS identifies this as a possible move intended to remain below the threshold of armed conflict.

Our late-August report on a record Chinese ship swarm around Taiwan only reinforced our view that accelerating US-China decoupling would push investors toward conflict-free critical material supply chains that could benefit if shipping lanes around Taiwan became snarled, whether because of shipping restrictions or, worse, a blockade.