Peltola’s Alaska Lead Now Tops Every ‘Decoy Dan’ Vote… Trump’s Math Just Broke

Democrat Mary Peltola’s lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) has grown past the vote total of the second Dan Sullivan on the ballot, so even handing the senator every vote cast for the man Republicans call “Decoy Dan” would no longer put him ahead.

After the Alaska Division of Elections’ Nov. 10 update, which covers 401 of the state’s 403 precincts, Peltola has 118,926 first-choice votes, or 49%, to Sullivan’s 114,676, or 47.2%. Her margin of 4,250 is up from 2,517 a day earlier and from 637 last week, when the count stood at 102,962 to 102,325.

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., the retired Petersburg schoolteacher whose candidacy is under state and federal investigation, has 4,027 votes. Add all of them to the senator’s 114,676 and he reaches 118,703: still 223 votes behind Peltola.

“Dan Sullivan PLUS Dan Sullivan wins the Alaska Election by thousands of votes,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social at 7:36 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday. “All votes going to the Fake Dan Sullivan, which was done solely for the purpose of fraud and confusion, should immediately be given to the Real Dan Sullivan (Senator!)” Trump called it a “Rigged Election.” Later that day the new ballot drop put Peltola past the combined total.

Trump’s post went one step further: “Likewise the votes of the second fraudulent candidate, also put up by the Dems.” That is Gerald Heikes, the Palmer Republican in third with 5,318 votes. Stack his total on top as well and Sullivan would lead by 5,095. 

Without Heikes, the “Dan PLUS Dan” sum no longer works.

If no one tops 50%, the Division of Elections doesn’t add candidates together; it runs its ranked-choice tabulation on Nov. 18. The last-place candidate is eliminated, and each of those ballots moves to the voter’s next choice still in the race, round after round, until someone has a majority of the ballots left. A vote moves to the senator only if that voter ranked him.

The early data on those rankings favors Peltola. In the cast vote record the state released on Nov. 4, covering about 204,000 scanned ballots, only about 16% of Petersburg Sullivan’s voters ranked the senator second, while a little over a quarter ranked Peltola second, according to an analysis by Alaska Public Media. About half of Heikes’ voters ranked the senator anywhere on their ballots. Nearly 30,000 Peltola voters ranked the Petersburg Sullivan second.

On those shares, the second Sullivan’s 4,027 votes would give the senator about 640 and Peltola about 1,000. Heikes’ 5,318 would give the senator about 2,660 more if every one of those rankings reached him. That nets Sullivan roughly 2,300 votes, a little over half the 4,250 he trails by. The cast vote record left out rural precincts that hand-count Election Day ballots, as well as the early and absentee ballots still being counted, so the shares could shift.

Sullivan’s campaign made the opposite case in a Nov. 5 memo, when Peltola led by 637: “If the ranked choice voting tabulation took place today of the votes that we have in hand right now, Senator Dan Sullivan would defeat Mary Peltola,” it said, calling the race “the biggest election cheating scandal in the history of Alaska.” Peltola’s campaign called that “fictitious.”

“Alaskans are fed up with high costs and corruption stemming from DC, and they have made their voices heard: after every vote is counted, it is clear that Mary Peltola will be elected Alaska’s next United States Senator,” Cheryl Bruce, Peltola’s campaign manager, said in a Nov. 10 statement.

Yesterday’s ballot drop delivered positive results, and we expect more updates shortly.

Our thorough counting process is something to appreciate. It means every ballot gets counted and every voice gets heard. That’s how the system is supposed to work.https://t.co/mbOkD1abTS

— Mary Peltola (@MaryPeltola) November 11, 2026

Gov. Mike Dunleavy said in a Sunday interview that big ballot drops are expected on Friday, Nov. 13, and on Wednesday, Nov. 18, the day of the ranked-choice count. The results are set to be certified Nov. 25. Peltola’s campaign has also sued the state over absentee ballots it rejected.

The second Sullivan has hung over the race since the New York Times reported on Oct. 28 that operatives around Peltola’s campaign spent months hunting for Alaskans named Dan Sullivan to put on the ballot. Peltola’s campaign denies recruiting anyone. Dunleavy ordered a criminal investigation the next day, a federal judge threw out the Justice Department’s bid to block certification if Sullivan lost, and the federal probe has now reached Democratic lawyer Marc Elias, according to Just the News.

Democrats and the independents who caucus with them already have at least 54 Senate seats in the next Congress to the Republicans’ 44, with Alaska and Mississippi uncalled. In Mississippi, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith trails Democrat Scott Colom by 2,990 votes, and if both seats fall, Democrats would hold 56.