Trump’s Legacy Will Ultimately Be Determined By The Outcome Of The Third Gulf War

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter,

The Democrats retook control of Congress in an electoral bloodbath that decimated the Republicans during the midterms. Many had predicted that this would happen, and it’s not because of the Canadian meddling that the White House recently drew attention to or any other countries’ related efforts, but due to the cost of living surging as a result of the Third Gulf War that Trump initiated with Bibi. Higher oil prices naturally translated into higher prices across the board that hit average Americans very hard.

Trump earlier threatened to become “Mr. Veto” if the Republicans lost control of Congress, elaborating that the Supreme Court recently strengthened his executive authority, and his sharing on social media of a pic of a red hat with the word “VETO” on it after the results poured in suggests that he’s serious. That’s sensible since it would be illogical for him to pass up the opportunity to veto legislation against his agenda when the Democrats don’t have the two-thirds supermajority in both chambers to overrule him.

The Democrats will therefore have to either compromise over the next two years or the US will remain legislatively paralyzed with both sides blaming the other ahead of the next elections. The Democrats might also try to once again impeach Trump, but they lack the two-thirds supermajority in the Senate to oust him from office, so it would only be symbolic. In any case, Trump might pivot towards foreign policy if domestic policy is deadlocked, which could have important implications for many countries.

Chief among them is Iran since Trump’s legacy will ultimately be determined by the outcome of the Third Gulf War. Each side blames the other for perpetuating the conflict across the entire year, but just like the Democrats will have to compromise if they want any of their legislation to pass, so too must Trump compromise with Iran if he wants to save his legacy. The reason is simple and it’s that perpetuating the high cost of living sparked by higher oil prices will doom the Republicans in 2028.

The scenario of a Democrat president presiding over a Democrat-controlled Congress would spell the end of everything that Trump achieved at home and abroad during his second term, and it’s a credible scenario too since voters care more about the economy than foreign policy or so-called “culture wars”. About that, the Democrats’ landslide wouldn’t have happened without some Republicans either staying home or voting for the Democrats in protest, which they did due to their surging cost of living.

This doesn’t mean that they “betrayed” Trump or the causes that they supported just two years ago, however, since most of them likely believed that Trump would indeed become “Mr. Veto” to preserve his achievements for at least the next two years. What they wanted to do was simply show him that the higher cost of living that the Third Gulf War is responsible for, which many of them consider to be a voluntary war since they don’t believe that Iran was on the verge of building a nuke, is unacceptable.

Therefore, nothing would rejuvenate his base more than to swiftly compromise with Iran as a means of showing them that he heard their message loud and clear, which would then facilitate a gradual decrease in the cost of living that could restore the economy by 2028 and help the Republicans win. 

If he remains bogged down in the Gulf or provokes Iran into obliterating the region’s energy infrastructure in retaliation for being nuked, for example, then MAGA will likely be swept into the dustbin of history.

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