Durable Goods Collapsing
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $193.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase followed two consecutive monthly decreases including a 0.1 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3 percent.
There’s nothing good in here. That headline number masked monstrous weakness when one looks ex-transports. Most of the transport gains were in non-defense aircraft and parts.
Worse, if you remember, one of my leading indicators is computers and other technology products – specifically, the backlog.
Eek.
Backlog is basically gone, but what’s worse is that on a month-over-month basis new orders have collapsed. This puts the lie to the claim made by many that there will be any sort of meaningful support coming from technology. Sorry, but no.
Electrical equipment new orders were likewise down almost 6%. But the damage didn’t end there:
These things are the means of production and their new order flow is in all-on collapse.
Granted, this is a volatile series. But it is also “seasonally adjusted”, which means that we should not see large variations on a “random” basis, assuming that the “adjustments” actually are honest (and who knows if they are.)
This was a very weak report, albeit not something that I find unexpected. Indeed, I was wondering how long the so-called “inventory cycle” nonsense would come to an end.
The answer is, apparently, “now.”
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