Will We Follow-Through or was Wednesday Just a Trap?

The bulls were looking for a reason to buy at these low levels and today provided that oversold opportunity.  China PMI came in slightly better than expected and that was a big relief to most concerned over the continuous soft data we have seen recently.  The bulls gapped-up on this news only to see better-than-expected ISM index numbers, which fueled another leg up on the day.

The bulls were able to shrug off the terrible ADP employment numbers as well, which was encouraging.  Estimates were for an increase of 13,000 (actually a wide range of estimates that were even higher) but instead, nonfarm private employment decreased 10,000 from July to August on a seasonally adjusted basis.  While this doesn’t necessarily mean Friday’s job reports will be lower than expected, it surely does not give confidence it will meet or exceed expectations.  This leads to a very important question for both bulls and bears.  If we have weaker than expected numbers on Friday, do we lose all these gains?

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