Weapon Traces and Criminal Trends: What America’s Gun Recovery Data Really Reveals

Firearm-related crimes have long been a flashpoint in American discourse, but recent data reveals how deeply intertwined these incidents are with systemic patterns in firearm sales, thefts, and trafficking. A comprehensive study by Suzuki Law, drawing on data published by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), sheds new light on the movement of firearms from legal purchase to criminal use and offers policymakers a better understanding of the scale and complexity of gun violence in the U.S.

Tracing the Surge: Millions of Firearm Recovery Requests

From 2017 to 2023, the number of firearm trace requests submitted by law enforcement grew by 52%, totaling nearly 3 million submissions over seven years. This surge in trace requests reflects not only the increased number of weapons found at crime scenes but also the growing adoption of digital tracing technologies such as eTrace. In 2023 alone, 654,064 traces were submitted an all-time high.

The steady rise in trace activity mirrors the broader challenges facing American cities. With more guns in circulation and faster access to weaponry, law enforcement has been forced to rely more heavily on trace data to understand how guns flow into criminal hands.

Which States Recover the Most Firearms?

Firearm recovery rates differ significantly by state, influenced by population size, law enforcement resources, and the state’s role in trafficking corridors. According to the study, California and Texas led the nation in 2023, recovering 56,382 and 55,248 firearms, respectively. Florida followed with 37,461. These states are also major hubs of both legal gun sales and suspected illicit transfers.

At the other end of the spectrum, Vermont and Wyoming had the lowest recovery numbers, with 372 and 512, respectively. This geographic disparity reflects broader questions about enforcement intensity, reporting mechanisms, and the regional nature of gun crime.

Pistols Reign Supreme in Criminal Use

Pistols accounted for nearly three-quarters of all crime guns traced in 2022 and 2023, with 9 mm handguns dominating the field. Of the 1,036,680 crime guns traced nationally during that time, 463,942 were 9 mm pistols, and the Glock 9 mm model alone made up 12% of those recoveries.

This concentration around a single weapon type underscores not just consumer preference but the tactical considerations of those using firearms illegally. Pistols are concealable, affordable, and widely available making them the weapon of choice in both crimes of opportunity and organized violence.

Ghost Guns and Conversion Devices: A New Frontier in Illicit Firearms

The rise of privately made firearms (PMFs), often referred to as “ghost guns,” has introduced a new layer of complexity to gun crime enforcement. From 2017 to 2023, recoveries of PMFs surged by 1,600%, reaching 27,490 in 2023. Their lack of serial numbers and ability to bypass traditional background checks make them especially attractive to criminal networks.

Machine gun conversion devices small components capable of turning semi-automatic weapons into fully automatic ones also saw a staggering 784% increase in recoveries from 2019 to 2023. In 2023 alone, 4,542 such devices were confiscated. These developments point to a growing intersection between firearms and DIY modification culture, complicating regulation and enforcement.

Demographic and Temporal Patterns in Crime Gun Purchases

The age and gender of individuals purchasing firearms that later show up in crimes are also shifting. Purchasers aged 18–34 now account for the majority of traced crime guns, with the under-25 group increasing by 3 percentage points between 2019 and 2021. Women now represent 22% of traced crime gun purchasers, up from 17% in 2017.

Time-to-crime (TTC) data reveals another sobering trend: more guns are making it into the criminal market faster than ever. The median TTC dropped from 4.2 years in 2017 to 2.9 years in 2023. In 2021, a striking 32% of guns were recovered within just one year of purchase.

Theft and Trafficking: Critical Pathways to Criminal Use

Stolen firearms continue to be a significant factor. Nearly 1.1 million guns were reported stolen between 2019 and 2023, with 95% of those thefts affecting private citizens. Of particular concern is the speed with which these stolen weapons are used: the median time to first shooting was just 258 days.

Firearms lost by licensed dealers also contributed to the issue, with 14,797 guns reported missing in 2023. Texas and Florida again led the pack in these losses, suggesting a need for stricter oversight of gun sellers in high-volume states.

U.S. Guns in Mexican Cartel Territory

The international dimension of U.S. gun trafficking is also growing more concerning. The study reveals a 63% increase in U.S.-sourced firearms recovered in Mexico between 2017 and 2023. Texas, Arizona, and California account for 74% of these weapons, many of which are funneled through cartel-dominated regions.

This trend underscores the need for cross-border enforcement and policy coordination, particularly around inspection and interdiction along known smuggling routes. Despite domestic recovery, 86% more firearms were intercepted heading southbound in 2023 compared to the previous year.

Understanding the Bigger Picture

The picture that emerges from the Suzuki Law study is both complex and urgent. Firearms are moving from legal to illegal hands faster, with increasingly diverse pathways from bulk purchases and theft to ghost gun assembly and international trafficking.

As policymakers and law enforcement leaders seek to reduce gun violence, this data offers a vital resource. By identifying how, where, and why guns end up in crimes, the U.S. has a better chance of addressing root causes, not just symptoms of its firearm epidemic.