Executive Summary on Migrant Caravan Movement Toward US Southern Border
SENTINEL INTELLIGENCE SERVICES, LLC
Monday –
December the 17th, 2018
1100Hrs; C.S.T. (Texas)
______________________
BRIEFING CLASSIFICATION: NOT RESTRICTED – OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE//OSINT
SUBJECT OF BRIEFING: Executive Summary on Migrant Caravan movement toward U.S Southern Border
FOR YOUR ANALYSIS AND CONSIDERATION:
See attached report –
Lyle J. Rapacki,Ph.D.
______________________
LYLE J. RAPACKI, Ph.D.
Protective Intelligence and Assessment Specialist
Consultant at Behavioral Analysis and Threat Assessment
Private-Sector Intelligence Analyst
U.S. Border Intelligence Group
ASIS International
Association of Former Intelligence Officers
Association of Threat Assessment Professionals – Arizona ATAP
International Association Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts
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Summary |
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Tijuana PD and Federal Police (PF) assisted Foreign Operations Branch (FOB) Agents at Goat’s Canyon where a group of five Honduran nationals (family unit) from the caravan made entry into the United States, according to CBP reporting. PF advised additional Caravan migrants waiting to go over the border fence, to go to a shelter and not seek illegal entry into the United States. Additionally, FOB, with assistance from PF, is actively trying to identify members of the media reported to be helping people from the Caravan to climb over the border fence into the United States.
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Line of Effort 1: Local Outreach Efforts |
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Region IX:
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Line of Effort 2: CBP – DoD Efforts |
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Region IX:
o Organizing logistics for barrier materials that will remain after DoD engineering drawdown.
o Five Mobile Video Surveillance System (MVSS) units have arrived to the San Diego AOR. MVSS assets will provide real time surveillance while in the field for training until December 22nd when all equipment will be permanently deployed.o One tethered drone is scheduled to arrive December 17th followed with FAA 107 training, this unit will provide persistent surveillance over many areas of concern.
o The area has persistent video surveillance and on scene BP assets.o CBP private contractor Cerrudo continues to make repairs which began on December 10th.
Office of Intelligence
o Mexican Federal Police (PF), reported that caravan leadership is fracturing. Part of the Caravan is following Fernando Hernandez Mateo and others are loyal to Alfonso Guerrero Ulloa.§ PF added that Ireneo Mujica has seemed to lost relevance among caravan migrants.o December 10th – 18th American Friends Service Committee (AFSC) “Love Knows No Borders – Week of Action”.§ Previous demonstration at Border Field Park resulted in 33 arrest/citations, three for assault.§ Today, December 12th, the group plans to conduct a border wall tour and demonstration in Tijuana, MX. (0900-1400 hours)(Exactlocation and number of participants are unknown).o December 15th – “La Posada Sin Fronteras” yearly event at Friendship Park in support of the migrants. (1400-1600 hours) (181 attending – 644 interested).o December 15th – “America First Rally” anti-caravan solidarity gathering at the San Ysidro Interstate 5 freeway pedestrian bridge. (1100 hours) (30 attending – 161 interested).o December 19th – “Caravan Supply and Peace Rally” event at Horton Plaza, downtown San Diego. Donations will be collected for migrants. (4 attending – 19 interested).
o CBP Intel Watch Numbers as of December 11, 2018.§ Total Caravan Migrants in Tijuana and Mexicali is estimated at 4,677§ 2,500 Migrants in El Barretal Shelter§ 240 Migrants outside the Benito Juarez Sport Complex§ 1,159 Migrants dispersed in different 15 shelters throughout Tijuana§ 350 Migrants in Caracol Social Center – Tijuana§ 160 Migrants in other locations§ 100 Migrants in El Mapa Park in tents§ 527 Migrants in various Mexicali SheltersAir and Marine Operations
Special Response Team
DoD
Region VI: Personnel in Region VI: 896 DoD reallocation movements DOD staff received their Deployment Order and have begun phasing troops out 10DEC18 in the following order:
Remediation efforts:
Equipment movement:
No new C-Wire deployed Total C-Wire deployed: 8.74 miles Hidalgo POE = Fortification To Date: .21 mile – Impedence Under / Around Hidalgo POE To Date: 1.38 miles Donna POE = Fortification To Date: 1.23 miles – Impedence Under / Around Donna POE To Date: .94 mile Anzalduas POE = Fortification To Date: .34 mile – Impedence Under / Around Anzalduas POE To Date: 1 mile Pharr POE = Fortification To Date: .51 mile BRO Gateway POE = Fortification To Date: .07 mile – Impedence Under / Around Gateway POE To Date: .91 mile Brownsville / Mexico (B&M) POE = Fortification To Date: .004 mile- Impedence Under / Around B&M POE To Date: .70 mile. .004 mile of impedance C-wire reworked to current fencing infrastructure at B&M POE. Los Indios POE = Fortification To Date: .012 mile Laredo Gateway to the Americas (Bridge #1) = Fortification To Date: .19 mile- Impedence Under / Around Laredo Bridge #1 POE To Date: .73 mile Laredo Juarez-Lincoln International (Bridge #2) = Fortification To Date: .2 mile- Impedence Under / Around Laredo Bridge #2 POE To Date: .81 mile USBP/OFO/SRT:
AIR Contingent/RGV (previous 24HRS):
Past 24: CBP Air Branches 32.5 flight hours throughout Region VI in support of Operation Secure Line |
§ Today, December 12th, the group plans to conduct a border wall tour and demonstration in Tijuana, MX. (0900-1400 hours)(Exactlocation and number of participants are unknown).
o December 15th – “La Posada Sin Fronteras” yearly event at Friendship Park in support of the migrants. (1400-1600 hours) (181 attending – 644 interested).
o December 15th – “America First Rally” anti-caravan solidarity gathering at the San Ysidro Interstate 5 freeway pedestrian bridge. (1100 hours) (30 attending – 161 interested).
o December 19th – “Caravan Supply and Peace Rally” event at Horton Plaza, downtown San Diego. Donations will be collected for migrants. (4 attending – 19 interested).
- Coordination continues with our partners to provide a demographic breakdown of migrants that remain in Mexico.
o CBP Intel Watch Numbers as of December 11, 2018.
§ Total Caravan Migrants in Tijuana and Mexicali is estimated at 4,677
§ 2,500 Migrants in El Barretal Shelter
§ 240 Migrants outside the Benito Juarez Sport Complex
§ 1,159 Migrants dispersed in different 15 shelters throughout Tijuana
§ 350 Migrants in Caracol Social Center – Tijuana
§ 160 Migrants in other locations
§ 100 Migrants in El Mapa Park in tents
§ 527 Migrants in various Mexicali Shelters
Air and Marine Operations
- To date, AMO manned assets have flown 807 missions resulting in 1,865.5 hours. AMO unmanned assets flew 36 missions resulting in 250.3 hours. Combined total of manned and UAS flights to date resulted in 843 missions and 2,115.8 hours.
Special Response Team
- SRT has deployed a total of 111 Operators to Region IX, 103 in San Diego and 8 in Tucson.
- SRT has trained 810 CBP officers in Region IX with MFF training.
- Coordinating integration of federal law enforcement agencies supporting CBP efforts.
- 131 HSI agents are readily available to support Region IX operations.
- 33 DEA agents within the San Diego AOR have been identified and are ready respond to the POE should the need arise. DEA does not have a consistent physical presence at any POEs.
DoD
- DoD overall personnel total 2,909 including 723 Engineers and 718 Military Police (MP).
- Task Force (TF) Protector Elements are fully operational with MPs and DoD engineering units ready to perform port closures.
- DoD fast rope training for SOD and SRT will commence today, December 12th at 1400 hours utilizing DoD assets at Camp Pendleton.
Region VI:
Personnel in Region VI: 896
DoD reallocation movements
DOD staff received their Deployment Order and have begun phasing troops out 10DEC18 in the following order:
- 10DEC18- Advanced DoD Party departs for Home-stations to set conditions for the redeployment of personnel and equipment (15 pax total)
- HHC, 89TH MP BDE shifts from a main command post to a tactical command post on 10DEC18, and will move the majority of HHC personnel to Base Camp Donna to prepare for redeployment on 12DEC18. A trail party will remain at RGV-HQ for the next 48-72 hours prior to shifting operations to Base Camp Donna.
- First wave departs today (12DEC18); Resulting in a 48% reduction of Task Force Griffin Soldiers in the Area of Operations.
- Second wave departs on 14DEC18; Resulting in a 74% reduction of Task Force Griffin Soldiers in the Area of Operations.
- Third wave departs on 17DEC18; resulting in a 97% reduction of Task Force Griffin Soldiers in the Area of Operations.
Remediation efforts:
- Between 11-18 DEC18, Base Camp Donna will have all C-wire removed and reclamation of the land will commence. Projected completion of land remediation is NLT 18DEC18.
Equipment movement:
- Line Haul operations for equipment began 10DEC18 and will continue through 18DEC18, when all Task Force Griffin equipment in the STX AO is projected to have departed.
No new C-Wire deployed
Total C-Wire deployed: 8.74 miles
Hidalgo POE = Fortification To Date: .21 mile – Impedence Under / Around Hidalgo POE To Date: 1.38 miles
Donna POE = Fortification To Date: 1.23 miles – Impedence Under / Around Donna POE To Date: .94 mile
Anzalduas POE = Fortification To Date: .34 mile – Impedence Under / Around Anzalduas POE To Date: 1 mile
Pharr POE = Fortification To Date: .51 mile
Region IX:
o Organizing logistics for barrier materials that will remain after DoD engineering drawdown.
o Five Mobile Video Surveillance System (MVSS) units have arrived to the San Diego AOR. MVSS assets will provide real time surveillance while in the field for training until December 22nd when all equipment will be permanently deployed.o One tethered drone is scheduled to arrive December 17th followed with FAA 107 training, this unit will provide persistent surveillance over many areas of concern.
o The area has persistent video surveillance and on scene BP assets.o CBP private contractor Cerrudo continues to make repairs which began on December 10th.
Office of Intelligence
o Mexican Federal Police (PF), reported that caravan leadership is fracturing. Part of the Caravan is following Fernando Hernandez Mateo and others are loyal to Alfonso Guerrero Ulloa.§ PF added that Ireneo Mujica has seemed to lost relevance among caravan migrants.o December 10th – 18th American Friends Service Committee (AFSC) “Love Knows No Borders – Week of Action”.§ Previous demonstration at Border Field Park resulted in 33 arrest/citations, three for assault.§ Today, December 12th, the group plans to conduct a border wall tour and demonstration in Tijuana, MX. (0900-1400 hours)(Exactlocation and number of participants are unknown).o December 15th – “La Posada Sin Fronteras” yearly event at Friendship Park in support of the migrants. (1400-1600 hours) (181 attending – 644 interested).o December 15th – “America First Rally” anti-caravan solidarity gathering at the San Ysidro Interstate 5 freeway pedestrian bridge. (1100 hours) (30 attending – 161 interested).o December 19th – “Caravan Supply and Peace Rally” event at Horton Plaza, downtown San Diego. Donations will be collected for migrants. (4 attending – 19 interested).
o CBP Intel Watch Numbers as of December 11, 2018.§ Total Caravan Migrants in Tijuana and Mexicali is estimated at 4,677§ 2,500 Migrants in El Barretal Shelter§ 240 Migrants outside the Benito Juarez Sport Complex§ 1,159 Migrants dispersed in different 15 shelters throughout Tijuana§ 350 Migrants in Caracol Social Center – Tijuana§ 160 Migrants in other locations§ 100 Migrants in El Mapa Park in tents§ 527 Migrants in various Mexicali SheltersAir and Marine Operations
Special Response Team
DoD
Region VI: Personnel in Region VI: 896 DoD reallocation movements DOD staff received their Deployment Order and have begun phasing troops out 10DEC18 in the following order:
Remediation efforts:
Equipment movement:
No new C-Wire deployed Total C-Wire deployed: 8.74 miles Hidalgo POE = Fortification To Date: .21 mile – Impedence Under / Around Hidalgo POE To Date: 1.38 miles Donna POE = Fortification To Date: 1.23 miles – Impedence Under / Around Donna POE To Date: .94 mile Anzalduas POE = Fortification To Date: .34 mile – Impedence Under / Around Anzalduas POE To Date: 1 mile Pharr POE = Fortification To Date: .51 mile BRO Gateway POE = Fortification To Date: .07 mile – Impedence Under / Around Gateway POE To Date: .91 mile Brownsville / Mexico (B&M) POE = Fortification To Date: .004 mile- Impedence Under / Around B&M POE To Date: .70 mile. .004 mile of impedance C-wire reworked to current fencing infrastructure at B&M POE. Los Indios POE = Fortification To Date: .012 mile Laredo Gateway to the Americas (Bridge #1) = Fortification To Date: .19 mile- Impedence Under / Around Laredo Bridge #1 POE To Date: .73 mile Laredo Juarez-Lincoln International (Bridge #2) = Fortification To Date: .2 mile- Impedence Under / Around Laredo Bridge #2 POE To Date: .81 mile USBP/OFO/SRT:
AIR Contingent/RGV (previous 24HRS):
Past 24: CBP Air Branches 32.5 flight hours throughout Region VI in support of Operation Secure Line |
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Line of Effort 3: LFC International Engagement |
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Region IX:
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Line of Effort 4: HQ Area Command |
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HQ Area Command:
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Line of Effort 5: Foreign Partner/ Stakeholder Activities |
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Region IX:
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Line of Effort 6: Public Affairs |
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Region IX:
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Line of Effort 7: Health and Medical |
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HQ Area Command:
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