Deep League Sleeper: Could 2018 Be The Year Tyler Lockett Finally Emerges?

by Ray Kuhn

Sixteen touchdowns… With Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson signing elsewhere this off-season that is how many TD Seattle must replace from two of their three biggest receiving threats. There’s also 101 receptions and 1,223 receiving yards that the duo took with them to Green Bay and Washington.  While Seattle won’t replace all of that production with just one receiver and their offense will likely take a step backwards in 2018, Tyler Lockett enters the season with the most to gain.

The majority of the Seahawks’ offense will still focus on Russell Wilson and the ground game, both from him and their backfield rotation, but they do need to throw the ball to someone other than Doug Baldwin.

With Wilson proving that he is one of the top quarterbacks in the game there is some clear value in that. Baldwin happens to be nursing a knee injury so far this summer, so while at this point his status to start the season doesn’t appear to be in question it’s possible he gets off to a slow start. In other words things are aligning quite well for Lockett.

So far his ADP hasn’t exactly caught up, as since June 1st his NFFC ADP comes in at 149. At that price the risk is minimal, and there is a solid reward to be had.

The problem is that Lockett has yet to prove he can truly take the next step; at least when it comes to production that is. After catching 51 passes for 664 and 6 TD in his rookie campaign, he scored a combined 3 TD in each of his last two seasons. His production has also gone down, as in 2016 and 2017 he averaged 43 receptions for 576 yards.

We know that the targets will be there because who else are they going to go to? While that does sound like a cop-out, it’s the truth. Can we really expect anything from Jaron Brown after being signed from Arizona? Does Brandon Marshall have anything left to offer? I would answer no to both questions, especially since Marshall hasn’t exactly impressed so far this summer.

Is it possible that Lockett catches 70 passes in 2018? Yes it is, and even at his worst yards per reception of 12.3 (from 2017) we are looking at 861 yards (and that increase from his 43 average receptions from the past two seasons, still leaves 58 catches unaccounted for from last season). Now Lockett just needs to get into end zone and with Graham, and his red zone presence, out of the picture he has to catch more than the 2 TD he had last season.

With that taking place, I like the chances of Lockett surpassing his current ADP.

Make sure to check out all of our 2018 preseason rankings: