Analytical Vs Intuitive Decision Making
Friday, April 26, 2013 21:08
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Analytic thinking
- the abstract separation of a whole into its constituent parts in order to study the parts and their relations
Intuitive thinking
- Thoughts and preferences that come to mind quickly and without much reflection…. Definitions aside we are talking about rationally thinking through the parts of a problem vs your “gut”. I will talk about the good and bad sides of both decision making methods and hopefully give you some ideas about which are better in certain broad scenarios.
Analytic thinking strengths:
- This is the best way to deal with big complex problems. By breaking a problem down into parts then doing the research to fully understand these parts as well as the second and third order effects of them it lends itself to making the best decisions for complex problems.
- This method excels at dealing with problems one does not understand well. Example- I might not know the best way to fix a lawn mower right now. Off the top of my head I could break the problem into parts, do some research in various manuals then talk to a handy friend. In 2-3 days I could probably have a pretty good way to approach the problem.
Analytic thinking weaknesses:
- The biggest downside of using a determined analytical thinking process is time. It is slow. This is not an option to solve a problem that has to be figured out in minutes or even hours. Of course the amount of time needed is dictated by the problem (ever heard the saying “if you have 2 hours it will only take 2 hours”?) but this just isn’t the way to deal with urgent issues.
Intuitive thinking strengths:
- Best in areas where you have deep knowledge/experience. Whatever natural ’6th sense’ intuition we have aside our gut is really a snap judgement based on our knowledge, education and life experience. As such intuition naturally works best in areas we deeply understand. If an undercover cop or a robbery/homocide detective thinks something bad is about to happen he is probably right. A mechanic’s intuitive thought on what’s wrong with a car is probably right. A PHD economist or a longtime banker/ trader’s guess on an economic situation is probably right. You get where this is going.
- Fast. It’s easy to tell what your ‘gut’ is telling you to do. If you have to make a decision in the next couple minutes (or seconds) it’s pretty much going to be intuitive simply because there is not enough time for anything else.
Intuitive thinking weaknesses:
- Intuitive thinking fails in areas where a person’s background knowledge is iffy or poor.
- Significantly compounding the first problem, people have a tendency to overestimate their level of experience. I believe this is a major problem for survivalists/preppers. By the varied nature of our hobby we know a little bit about many things. We know more about economics and financial collapses than Joe Everyday but are not career economists. We know more about self defense and crime than Joe Everyday but deal with less of it in our lives than that undercover cop does in a week. You get the point. Without keeping this perspective we can over judge our experience level then run with poorly based intuitive decisions.
Additional considerations:
- You have to balance the risks of an action vs the risks of not taking that action. Particularly with intuitive decisions if the result of the action has no risk just run with it. When your gut says not to go into the alley then don’t go there. Example, we were pulling into a grocery store parking lot around dusk one evening to grab something or another. Wifey saw a few questionable looking guys sort of milling around in the parking lot so we decided to go to another grocery store. The risk of taking that action was nothing, we drove a couple miles to another store. That made the decision easy.
- Take the time that is available to make a good decision. It’s true that you might have a second or two to make a decision in a dark alley. In a riot or other situation you might be able to duck into some cover then have minutes to make a decision. Really just about any other scenario will let you think for a few hours or more realistically at least a day or two. The point here is that if you realistically have 48 hours to make a decision there is no need to run with a 2 minute intuitive decision. Even if you come to that conclusion it can be backed up by deliberate thought over the rest of the day and then slept on as there is plenty of time. I’m not saying to sit around idly admiring the problems at hand but assess the time you have to make a decision then take that time to make the best most thought out decision possible.
Anyway I hope this gives you something to think about.
2013-04-26 21:01:39
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The biggest problem with analysis, it is often as you say, slow, because components acting as part of a whole are quantified and often treated as if they can be or are isolated from a system.
This is good for estimating or specificity, but can fail rather horribly, broadly. Intuition on the other hand, well, who knows?
Procrastination and perhaps too much focus may make you doubt what you know to be true, intuitively (though not necessarily). Effectively turning something to an “unknown known”, since donald rumsfeld didn’t mention it, that is, denial of what was actually correct.