Read This Now: Global Trends 2030

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) published its Global Trends
2030: Alternative Worlds on Monday, a quadrennial analysis of the major trends
shaping the global security environment. The report is intended to provide a
framework for a new presidential administration to think about the threats and
opportunities that lie ahead in the future security landscape.

The report examined four medgatrends that analysts believe
will shape the world of tomorrow: individual empowerment; diffusion of power;
demographic patterns; and the food, water, energy nexus.

The latter two trends directly affect each other. According
to the NIC’s analysis, “Demand for these [food, water and energy] resources
will grow substantially owing to an increase in the global population
[demographics].” 

Climate change is inextricably linked to the growing food,
water and energy nexus. According to the report:

Demand for food, water, and energy
will grow by approximately 35, 40, and 50 percent respectively owing to an
increase in the global population and the consumption patterns of an expanding
middle class. Climate change will worsen the outlook for the availability of
these critical resources. Climate change analysis suggests that the severity of
existing weather patterns will intensify, with wet areas getting wetter and dry
and arid areas becoming more so. Much of the decline in precipitation will
occur in the Middle East and northern Africa as well as western Central Asia,
southern Europe, southern Africa, and the US Southwest.

We are not necessarily headed into
a world of scarcities, but policymakers and their private sector partners will
need to be proactive to avoid such a future. Many countries probably won’t have
the wherewithal to avoid food and water shortages without massive help from
outside.

Technology will play an interesting role in the future
security landscape, particularly when it comes to energy, according to the
NIC’s analysis. Technological breakthroughs in unconventional natural gas and
oil production are contributing to an energy revolution in North America.

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www.cnas.org