Much Ado about Nothing: Allaying Concerns about China's Potential Control of Greenland's Rare Earths

On Monday, Quartz published a story about China’s
growing foothold in Greenland and the mounting concerns about its quest to
produce the semi-autonomous island’s rare earth metals. (See “China’s
creep into Greenland is setting off alarm bells.”)

The New York Times
reported last September that the retreating Greenland ice sheet is giving way
to new opportunities for the 57,000 people living on the once sparse island. In
particular, the melting ice is leading to new discoveries of mineral deposits,
including rare earths. According to the report, the small Greenland town of
Narsaq sits near one
of the world’s largest deposits of rare earth elements – which are critical
in the manufacturing of advanced technologies, from smart phones and smart
bombs to wind turbines and high-end batteries. According to Greenland Minerals and Energy
Ltd, the deposit could contain about 10.3 million metric tons of rare earth
metals, equivalent to about 10 percent of the known global reserves (which total
about 110
million metric tons, according to the U.S. Geological Survey).

Quartz reports
that Western officials are particularly concerned about potential Chinese
control of Greenland’s rare earth elements given that they are critical to
advanced technologies and have few – if any – reliable manufacturing substitutes.
(Some technologies can substitute rare earths, but they do not have the same
effective properties.) Adding to the angst is the fact that China today
produces about 97 percent of the world’s rare earth elements – even though it only
holds 50 percent of the world’s known reserves, and that China has been
limiting exports in order to satisfy its own domestic demand.

But how worried should Western officials be about China’s
potential control of Greenland’s rare earths? A couple of points are worth
mentioning that should help allay concerns.

First, China’s share
of the rare earth market is in relative decline. Sure, China produces 97
percent of the world’s rare earth resources. But the United States has ample reserves
as well; they are just not being produced – yet. According to the U.S.
Geological Survey, the United States holds about 13 million metric tons of rare
earths, or about 12 percent of the known global reserves. One of the largest
mines is in California. While the United States used to produce these minerals,
more rigorous environmental standards made it difficult for U.S. producers to
compete with cheaper Chinese metals, and so U.S. producers stopped extracting
them. But that is starting to change as prices rise. The market appears to be
doing its thing, and the United States is ramping up U.S. rare earth production to
compete with Chinese metals. Naturally this will help diversify the market. Moreover,
Australia and Malaysia are also planning to increase production of their known
reserves as well. Other countries are likely to follow suit, including India
and other states in Central Asia.

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