Joint Sino-Russian Bomber Patrol Amid Escalatory US Rethoric Over Taiwan

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

On May 24 the Chinese PLAAF (People’s Liberation Army Air Force) and the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) conducted a joint 13-hour long-range strategic bomber patrol in the Pacific, which was the latest of such patrols carried out over four consecutive years. The first Sino-Russian strategic bomber patrol was conducted in July 2019 and has become a regular occurrence ever since.

Global Times, a reputable Chinese media outlet described the event as “demonstrating a high level of military cooperation between the two major powers that contributes to peace and stability in the region and the world at a time when both countries are facing stern, provocative pressure from the U.S. and the West.” The patrol coincided with a visit by United States President Joe Biden to the increasingly unstable region. The visit is widely seen as a move aimed against China, as president Biden is seeking to rally potential partners for a collective strategic isolation of China.

The strategic bombers involved in the patrol included the PLAAF Xian H-6K and the VKS Tupolev Tu-95MS platforms, with Russian Su-30SM jets also having been involved as escort fighters. Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) scrambled fighter jets (most likely F-15J or F-2) in response to the bomber patrol, with the Defence Ministry in Tokyo identifying four Chinese Xian H-6K long-range bombers, two Russian Tupolev Tu-95 intercontinental strategic bombers and a Russian Il-20 ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) aircraft over the Sea of Japan.

The Chinese PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) has also been maintaining a strong presence in northern areas of East Asia. With a relatively close proximity of US bases in Japan, the PLAN deployment in the area includes the aircraft carrier Liaoning, which has conducted naval exercises earlier in the month and more recently the transit of two Type 054A frigates through the Tsushima Strait.

With estimates ranging from 120 to nearly 250 H-6 bombers in service, the Chinese PLAAF operates the largest long-range bomber fleet in the world. China is also working on the development of an intercontinental-range bomber under the secretive Xian H-20 program. The H-20 is expected to be a flying wing design with a range of at least 8,500 km. According to the Pentagon, having such a capability “would allow China to reliably threaten U.S. targets within and beyond the Second Island Chain, to include key U.S. military bases in Guam and Hawaii.” The payload carried by the new bomber is projected to be at least 10 tons of conventional or nuclear weapons.

Unlike the subsonic Russian Tupolev Tu-95MS and its supersonic counterpart currently in production, the Tupolev Tu-160 (recently upgraded to M and M2 variants), the PLAAF Xian H-6, a license-built version of the long-retired Russian Tupolev Tu-16, barely falls within the intercontinental bomber category, with a range of approximately 6000 km. With its current fuel capacity, the bomber’s endurance in air is estimated to be no longer than 13 hours. Nevertheless, the newer H-6 variants are unrivaled when it comes to ease of maintenance, very low operational costs and logistics in general. The bomber is also known to have a highly sophisticated avionics suite and electronic warfare capabilities. The H-6N version is notably capable of carrying an air-launched variant of the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile.

While China has kept the strategic reach of its PLAAF limited to areas in its immediate and relative vicinity, new threats coming from the United States and its allies and client states have forced the Asian giant to invest in intercontinental capabilities. The ever belligerent US government has been antagonizing Beijing for years, while trying to cordon China off, attempting to turn countries in the region against it, which would result in its partial encirclement.

President Biden’s recent remarks regarding possible military action in Taiwan, a geopolitics expert Lucas Leiroz recently covered in an excellent analysis, are a testament to that intention. Thus, China is forced to considerably increase its strategic military capabilities, a move which the country tried to avoid for decades, focusing almost solely on economic development.

Russia has also benefited from China’s rise to become one of the leading military powers. The security cooperation between the (Eur)Asian superpowers has grown considerably in the last 30 years, while their level of trust and interoperability has quite possibly surpassed the Sino-Soviet alliance from the 1950s. One notable example of this is the Russian Aerospace Forces’ redeployment of Su-35S fighters and S-400 SAM (surface to air missile) systems from Russia’s Far East to Eastern Europe in months prior to the initiation of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. The fast-paced growth of China’s military capabilities has considerably reduced the burden on Russian forces in Northeast Asia.

Source: InfoBrics