Ukraine’s Plan to Attack Russian Forces in Syria Shows Desperateness

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency developed plans to conduct covert attacks on Russian forces in Syria using Kurdish help, according to a document leaked to a Discord chatroom and published by the Washington Post. Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky halted the planning in December, the leaked document is based on intelligence gathered as of January 23. It describes how the planning progressed and how such a campaign could proceed if the Ukrainian president decides to activate it.

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry’s military intelligence service has plans for deniable attacks to avoid implicating Kiev and to divert Russian resources from Ukraine to Syria. The document details an “alternative analysis” of potential targets and the “likelihood of escalation” from Moscow “if Kyiv decided to advance the plan.”

Despite this revelation, Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, declined to comment, suggesting that Ukrainian authorities are trying to keep this leak under wraps.

According to the document, Ukrainian military intelligence officers favoured striking Russian forces using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and starting “small,” or possibly limiting their strikes only to Wagner. The document also mulled whether to train operatives of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to conduct “unspecified ‘direct action’ activities along with UAV attacks” against Russian forces.

Demonstrating the Kurd’s consistent duplicitous position, the SDF reportedly offered support for Ukrainian operations so long as Russian positions in Kurdish areas were not targeted and for training, air defence systems and a guarantee that its role would be kept secret. However, its role has been exposed, even if SDF spokesperson Farhad Shami denies the document, describing it as “not real” and claiming that “our forces have never been a side in the Russian-Ukrainian war.”

Given that the Kurds were critical for the execution of the plan, Turkey suggested that Ukraine stage its attacks from Kurdish areas instead of those held by Turkish-backed jihadist groups in north and northwest Syria so that Ankara could “avoid potential blowback.”

The Turkish Foreign Ministry and embassy in the United States did not return requests for comment, The Washington Post reported. The outlet also cited a former US official, who worked in the region and spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the intelligence, as saying that “while it is not clear how much Ankara knew about Kyiv’s plan, having Ukraine help arm its enemy may not have been intolerable if Turkey thought it might draw a violent response from Moscow.

“Turkey’s goal in the region is to eliminate the military capability and leadership of the SDF,” the former official said. “If Turkey were to be greeted with such a plan, it would be in their interest to bait the Ukraine-SDF alliance into drawing the wrath of Russia.”

In addition to the SDF and Turkey being unwilling to allow strikes against Russian forces on territory they control, Ukrainian military intelligence officers identified “issues with intra-Kurdish border controls and establishing a base of operations.”

Nonetheless, on December 29, the intelligence officers found out that Zelensky had halted their planning for unclear reasons, but the document assesses that it could have been for a variety of reasons, such as US pressure, Ukraine’s limited supply of drones or doubts about whether the attacks could succeed.

Just as importantly, the document highlights that such an audacious attack by Ukraine could “incur a Russian response targeting US interests in the region if support for an operation is attributed to the United States.”

Although the Russian military and Wagner operate internationally, Ukraine selected Syria as it “provides deniability options.” The document states Ukraine could attack Russian positions previously struck by Syrian rebels, launch attacks from rebel or even government-held areas, and attribute attacks to “front, defunct or active nonstate groups.”

The leaked assessment acknowledges the risk that Russia could “more aggressively” police Syrian airspace or move air defence weapons, which would “complicate” US interests in eastern Syria, if such an attack occurred.

Effectively, the planned attack had to be reined in. This was because it was not only audacious and would have no bearing on the conflict in Ukraine, but would ultimately weaken US interests in Syria as their Kurdish assets would be quickly neutralised for participating in such aggression. If successfully carried out, it would have served as a morale boost for Ukraine and the West; in practice, the long-term effects towards its war effort would be negative.

For this reason, the plan had to be scrapped. Still, it does demonstrate the desperateness of the Kiev regime since its intelligence agents are wasting time and resources in formulating plans that have little prospect of success or changing the course of the war.

Source: InfoBrics