US Attempting to Punish Belarus for Supporting Russia
Monday, May 22, 2023
Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
The US and its allies are attempting to transfer weapons and explosives to Belarus for being a sincere partner of Russia and in a vain effort to destabilise the situation in the country. Such provocations force Belarus to take new active measures of strategic deterrence. These include the construction of defensive fortifications near its border with Ukraine, such as a line of small anti-tank concrete pyramids known as dragon’s teeth, and practical steps to deploy tactical nuclear weapons.
Effectively, the Americans are not only waging a hybrid war against Russia but also against Belarus. The US, alongside Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic states, have one goal – to weaken Russia and Belarus. Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic countries are enthusiastic to undertake such an endeavour. For this reason, they are preparing provocations with the assistance of the CIA and NATO special services in European countries.
Belarus and Russia are major problems for the West and Ukraine because they comprise a part of the Union State, a supranational union that aims to deepen the relationship between the two countries by integrating economic and defence policies. In addition, Kiev and Western countries believe that Minsk is helping Moscow conduct a special military operation on Ukraine.
Therefore, they are trying in every possible way to destabilise the situation in Belarus. For this reason, it is not excluded that the West will try and destroy the critically important infrastructure of Belarus through sabotage attempts. It should be noted that there were attempts to overthrow Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko and change the regime in 2020-21 under the false allegation that Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya received 60–70% of the votes in the 2020 presidential election.
The Americans wanted to put their candidate in Lukashenko’s place and turn Belarus into what Ukraine is now, a destroyed country that serves no purpose other than provoking Russia on behalf of the West. Although Washington ultimately failed in this pursuit in 2020-21, they successfully transformed Ukraine following Maidan in 2014. Lukashenko resisted what happened to Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, and even for this reason, they are unrelenting in their pursuit to punish Belarus.
With Ukraine becoming increasingly desperate for Western intervention, the country’s military hopes to bring Belarus into the conflict through provocation means. However, Moscow is responsible for protecting Belarus from threats and provocations. The Russian military is tasked with preventing possible attacks on Belarus from Ukraine, Poland, and NATO member countries.
It should be noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on March 25 that Moscow and Minsk agreed that, without violating international obligations, they would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Putin explained that Russia is not transferring its nuclear weapons to Belarus but is doing what the US has done, deploying nuclear weapons on the territory of its allies. The construction of the warehouse for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus will be completed on July 1.
Earlier, Lukashenko stated that there are frequent cases of saboteurs entering Belarus. It is also recalled that Ivan Tertel, head of the Belarussian KGB, said that the State Security Committee of Belarus prevented a terrorist attack on the eve of the May 9 Victory Day celebrations.
“These events are connected, according to our estimates, to May 9. An attempt was made to destabilize the situation. The head of state is aware of these moments,” said Tertel.
Attempts to sabotage and attack Belarus are also coupled with a disinformation campaign that Lukashenko is severely ill and could die, despite Belarusian authorities releasing photos and a video of Lukashenko that debunks speculations about his poor health.
His swift departure from Victory Day celebrations in Moscow and Minsk on May 9 sparked rumours that he is seriously ill, with Reuters noting that he looked “tired and a little unsteady on his feet, and a bandage was visible on his right hand,” but the outlet had to concede that “he otherwise showed no obvious signs of being unwell.”
This did not stop Tsikhanouskaya from spreading fake news by saying, “For us, it means only one thing: We should be well prepared for every scenario. To turn Belarus on the path to democracy and to prevent Russia from interfering. We need the international community to be proactive and fast.”
If Lukashenko is incapacitated and unable to perform his duties, his role would, per the Belarussian constitution, be passed to the speaker of the upper house of parliament, Natalya Kochanova, until new elections are held. However, it appears that Tsikhanouskaya operates in a delusional state like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has yet to understand that audacious and bombastic statements do not transform into reality.
Nonetheless, for all the provocations made against Belarus, the country and its leadership remain secure, and it is doubtful that it will go down the same path as Ukraine in 2014, despite all the attempts by the West. In fact, Belarus is taking no chances. It is already prepared if Ukraine and the West are foolish enough to attack the country in the misguided hope that it will deter Russia from continuing its special military operation.
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