Melting Arctic ice forcing US, Russian rethink on trade, defence

The Cold War comprised three highly symbolic frontiers — Europe’s Iron Curtain, the Bamboo Curtain in Asia, and the lesser known Ice Curtain marking the border between the United States and the Soviet Union. This line, running from the Arctic Sea through the Bering Sea into the Pacific Ocean, has evaded headlines for many years. Thick layers of sea ice literally create an impassable wall between the countries.

Trade is negligible. The populations of Alaska and Chukotka province on the Russian side are sparse with few hearts and minds to win. It was in the best interests of both governments to play out the Cold War in faraway regions rather than risk face-to-face conflict across a shared border. But the sudden return of Russian military power to the global stage has given the Arctic region a critical focus as climate change melts sea ice and weakens the Ice Curtain.

Russia is bolstering its military presence there while reminding that its maritime boundary with the US remains in dispute. For its part, the US has stayed quiet — with a policy coming under criticism from the Alaskan state government and the Obama administration’s Republican opponents.

Climate change is forcing a re-evaluation of political thinking particularly in the areas of trade and defence. Three issues in particular need closer attention considering there is no clear agreement about which governments control the maritime territory.

First is opening the northern Arctic trade route to Europe. It cuts 7,500km off the 21,000km journey through the Suez Canal from, say, Shanghai to Rotterdam. As Asia continues to expand, more trade will be carried through here. Only five years ago, only four commercial cargo ships transporting 111,000 tonnes managed to navigate these once inaccessible shipping lanes. In 2012, 46 ships carried 1.2 million tonnes, and five years from now estimates put such cargo as high as 30 million tonnes.

Second, the melting ice has exposed vast quantities of natural resources. The US Geological Survey estimates that the Arctic accounts for 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of its natural gas. With present technology, retrieving these resources is challenging, as shown by Royal Dutch Shell pulling out of a multibillion-dollar exploration project in September.

Third, Russia has announced that it is shoring up its Arctic military presence. It already has 13 airbases and 10 radar stations and is reopening six mothballed Cold War airbases as well as building two new ones. It plans to station its long-range TU-95 nuclear bombers there and is expanding naval and port facilities.

The US has yet to respond. It has no permanent naval base. The US Coast Guard fleet patrols 9.8 million sq km of sea, an area of responsibility constantly increasing because of melting ice. Alaska has Fort Elmendorf Air Force and Fort Wainwright Army bases, but each is subjected to the country’s overall military reductions. “In the face of the Russian military build-up, we are significantly reducing army forces in our nation’s only Arctic state, Alaska,” said Mr Dan Sullivan, a Republican Senator for Alaska. “This is a strategic blunder while Russia is adding four Brigade Combat Teams and building new airfields in the Arctic.”