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Even the Weather Channel is now talking about the ‘Arctic Oscillation’ factor, they must have seen my Polar Vortex story?? The weather pattern is changing, what we have been experiencing thus far this winter is going to change. The chances for an East Coast snowstorm are increasing and looking like a possibility toward the end of next week. The AO is expected to remain negative for a week or two at least, if not longer according to the weather channel. 

The Weather Channel-An expected change in the large-scale weather pattern over North America and the higher latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean appear to be increasing the odds for an impactful winter storm in the East beginning late in the new week ahead.

There is broad support in computer forecast model guidance for colder-than-average conditions across portions of the East at times over the next two weeks. That forecast is of relative high confidence.

There are also indications of an increase in storminess, though whether a Southern or East Coast snowstorm actually forms is of much lower confidence, which is a typical conundrum facing meteorologists this time of year.

The result could be snow returning to portions of the U.S. which have not seen much in the way of snowfall so far this season.

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One of the factors to examine to determine if the pattern is favorable for an East Coast snowstorm is the Arctic Oscillation (AO). When the AO is in a negative phase, winds around the North Pole become weaker, colder air can push southward, and storminess usually increases in the mid-latitudes (the region south of the Arctic Circle and north of the tropics).

(MORE: Arctic Blast Ahead)

The AO index has been mostly positive since mid-October, contributing to the lack of very cold conditions and lack of East Coast snowstorms early in the winter season. However, the AO has become negative, and may continue to be so for the next 1-2 weeks, if not longer. 

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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is closely related to the AO, is another important factor which can signal the likelihood of an Eastern winter storm. The NAO is a measurement of the differences in atmospheric pressure between the Icelandic low (an area of low pressure over northern Iceland) and the Azores high (an area of high pressure located near the Azores). Differences in the location and strength of these two factors plays an important role in the direction and strength of the jet stream and consequently storm tracks across the North Atlantic.

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