Schmidt's Agri-Food Thoughts 6 February 2013

CHICKEN OR THE EGG?

No, we do not have the answer to that age old question, and nor do we plan on writing any further about the collapse of AAPL. We do know that when it comes to prices, the chicken came first this time. What is baffling, and beyond our understanding, is that the investment world is still blathering on about technology and bank stocks. Chickens and eggs are doing better than both, as shown in the charts below. As to our question pertaining prices, chicken prices bottomed in September 2011. Since then chicken prices have risen nearly 70%, beating most other prices.

Egg prices bottomed last Summer. So, it seems, the chicken did come first. Since that major low, egg prices have more than doubled. Clearly, eating breakfast has become more expensive. So, turn off the cable business show, and tune in the radio to the daily agricultural price report. If a chicken and her eggs can out perform Street gurus, why listen to them?

Some have been wiser than those, to be kind to their ineptitude, still mired in technology and bank stocks. Above chart, about which we have talked before, is a price index for the first tier Agri-Food stocks. That index rose to a new high at the end of January and is working on another as

February unfolds.

Much, actually too much, has been said and written of the market, as measured by the S&P 500, makin

g a multi year high. As that chart portrays, it has made a new multi year high, but how someone can crow about that measly performance is beyond our ability to explain. At the same time, little needs to be said about how Agri-Investors have done. While one cannot eat an Agri-Food stock, one might be able to afford chicken and eggs at the dinner table in the future. Remember to invite your poor friend still waiting for technology and bank stocks to recover. They might be hungry.

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS is from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA publisher of The Agri-Food Value View, a monthly exploration of the Agri-Food grand cycle being created by China, India, and Agri-Energy. To contract Ned or to learn more, use this link: www.agrifoodvalueview.com