July Gun Sales Rise 8.5% as NFA Checks More Than Double

Both firearm sales and the number of National Instant Criminal background Check System (NICS) as recorded in the FBI NICS system were up in July of 2026. The adjusted NICS background checks, which are a close approximation of the actual number of NICS based firearm sales, was up 8.5% over the 2025 numbers. The total number of check done in NICS for the month was up 6.3%. As reported by the National Shooting Sport Foundation (NSSF):

The July 2026 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,061,883 is an increase of 8.5 percent compared to the July 2025 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 978,731. For comparison, the unadjusted July 2026 FBI NICS figure of 2,057,967 reflects a 6.3 percent increase from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 1,936,621 in July 2025.

Looking at the 27 year history of NICS reports, the number of firearm sales, as measured by the NSSF-Adjusted NICS, has had ups and downs. Over 10 years, from 2017 to 2026, the number has increased 17%, or compounded annually at 1.8%. This is about three times the increase in the population over the last 10 years. The census is conducted every ten years, so the population numbers are not as accurate as the NICS numbers.

Population does not appear to be the major driver of firearm sales. The effect of population numbers is relatively small. In this correspondent’s experience, political factors, both domestic and international have had much greater impact. An extreme example is how the number of NICS checks done for National Firearms Act items such as silencers/suppressors, short barreled rifles (sbr), short barreled shotguns (sbs) have skyrocketed once the $200 tax was removed in the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) which was signed by President Trump at the end of 2025.

At the SHOT Show in Las Vegas in 2026, the ATF released a figure showing the official number of registered silencers/suppressors at 5.78 million. As July 1, 2026, the number of registered silencer/suppressors is 6.50 million. This is an increase of .72 million silencers/suppressor in six months. A half million of those have been added since April 10, 2026. A total of half a million silencer/suppressors were added to the National Firearms Registration and Transfer Record (NFRTR) from 1934 to 2006, over a period of 72 years. More silencer/suppressors have been registered in the USA in the last three months than were registered in the first 72 years of the infamous, and most likely unconstitutional, National Firearms Act. From the NSSF:

The July 2026 NFA figure of 130,013 is an increase of 108.8 percent compared to the July 2025 figure of 62,271.

Analysis: Politics continues to be a major driver of firearms sales in the USA and around the world. The silencer/suppressor figures show how much sales of NFA items have been politically suppressed (pun intended) in the USA. There is no evidence the suppression of silencers has any measurable effect on violent crime. There is no evidence the suppression of short barreled rifles or short barreled shotguns has any measurable effect on violent crime. There is evidence the widespread ownership of firearms suppresses crime, and a scanty evidence firearm ownership increases crime. The overall evidence is firearm ownership has a slight, but measurable effect on decreasing violent crime.

The effects of political attempts to reduce firearms ownership has enormous effects on firearm sales. The more uncertainty in domestic and political politics, the greater the firearm sales.

©2026 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included. Gun Watch