U.S. Urea Prices 2025, Size, Trend, Graph, News and Forecast

The North American Urea market experienced fluctuating price movements during Q4 2024, marked by a brief uptick in October followed by relative stability through November and December. Despite variable feedstock costs for Ammonia and Nitric Acid, prices remained largely unchanged early in the quarter, driven by subdued seasonal demand from the fertilizer sector as agricultural activity waned post-planting season. However, industrial demand—especially from the mining and explosives sectors—remained steady, helping to support market fundamentals.

Supply-side constraints were pronounced, with adverse weather conditions, hurricanes, and historically low water levels on the Mississippi River impacting logistics and production. A labor strike in Canada further limited supply, although effective inventory management helped prevent significant shortages.

October saw a mild increase in prices, spurred by tightening supply and marginally higher feedstock costs. Still, fertilizer buyers exercised caution, delaying bulk purchases in anticipation of more favorable pricing during the winter fill and spring prepay periods.

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Overall, Q4 reflected a balanced market dynamic, with consistent industrial consumption helping to offset weak agricultural demand and ongoing logistical disruptions.

Urea prices in the Asia-Pacific region displayed considerable volatility throughout Q4 2024. The first two months saw a sharp price rise, largely driven by robust international demand—particularly from India—which put pressure on already tight regional supplies. In China, logistical bottlenecks, including port congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, heavy rainfall, and surging freight costs, contributed to the upward price trend. The situation was compounded by vessel bunching and extended wait times, further tightening supply.

Adverse weather events, including typhoons across China and Japan, led to production halts. Several manufacturers declared force majeure due to excessive rainfall, leading to reduced output and regional Urea shortages.

However, by quarter’s end, prices eased as year-end buying activity slowed. India had already fulfilled most of its fertilizer needs through long-term tenders, reducing spot demand and easing market pressure.

The European Urea market trended downward in Q4 2024, influenced by persistently weak demand from the agriculture sector and an oversupplied market. Rising Ammonia feedstock costs and production constraints—such as the shutdown of a Norwegian gas platform—were insufficient to offset the pressure from high inventory levels.

A temporary price spike occurred in the UK during December due to supply chain disruptions and delayed shipments from major European suppliers. Nonetheless, buyer interest remained inconsistent, as variable weather patterns and uncertainty around the winter planting season continued to suppress purchasing activity.

Logistical challenges, including port congestion, added to the headwinds, highlighting a market environment where supply persistently outpaced demand amid economic and operational strain.

In South America, and particularly Brazil, Urea prices rose sharply during Q4 2024. This surge stemmed from a widening supply-demand gap fueled by the El Niño phenomenon, which brought milder weather and stimulated early fertilizer purchases. The agricultural sector’s seasonal preparations further bolstered demand for Urea across both fertilizer and industrial applications.

On the supply side, reduced North American exports—especially from Canada—coupled with limited U.S. contributions, tightened availability. Globally elevated prices for feedstocks like natural gas and Ammonia also raised production costs, impacting Brazilian import prices.

Additional challenges included shipping delays and rising freight costs, which compounded the financial burden for Brazilian buyers. Given Brazil’s dependence on imports, Urea prices are expected to remain high unless global supply improves or feedstock costs moderate.

The MEA Urea market showed notable volatility during Q4 2024, with prices rising significantly in October and November before softening in December. The early-quarter surge was attributed to elevated freight costs, constrained import availability, and stable downstream demand.

Production disruptions played a critical role—planned and unplanned maintenance at Ma’aden led to an estimated 96,000-ton reduction in output, prompting a downward revision of the company’s 2024 production target to 3.0–3.2 million tons, representing a 6–7% decline. This contraction impacted both domestic and export supply levels.

Strong demand from key importing nations, notably India, underpinned export activity, with Saudi producers such as Sabic Agri-Nutrients and Ma’aden collectively expected to load around 250,000 tons during the quarter’s first half. Nonetheless, prices eased in December as year-end demand slowed and India’s prior bulk procurement via tenders reduced spot market pressure, leading to market stabilization.

Get Real time Prices for Urea : https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/urea-1190

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