The Economists Comments on the “Double Dip” Housing Bust
Echoing our post from yesterday, the Economist had some choice words for the first-time homebuyer credit:
WHEN Congress first opted to subsidise new home purchases with a tax credit worth around $8,000, the thinking seemed to be that a burst of selling could stablise housing markets while the economy bottomed and job growth returned, at which point markets would be fine on their own… But by the end of 2009, the effect of the credit became clear. Sales and prices zoomed up to a peak in the fall as buyers rushed to beat the deadline, then tumbled in the months after, despite the extension of the credit. The credit was primarily shifting what sales were to be had around….
There is little mystery to what’s happening. Inventory levels remain high because of overbuilding and months’ worth of record foreclosure levels. Millions of homeowners are underwater while the unemployment rate remains near 10%. The tax credit changed none of those fundamentals.
Certain segments of the housing market will indeed recover, eventually. But it will be the natural demographic forces of the Echo Boomers leaving their parents’ homes that leads that recovery, not a government tax credit scheme.
Charles Sizemore, CFA
Co-author of the recently-published Boom or Bust: Understanding and Profiting from a Changing Consumer Economy
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