Is the Market Bounce A Sign Of Good Things?
I’m watching the markets move higher by over 1.5% today, and with the moves of last week that puts the indices 6-7% higher since the ugly days at the end of June. Has the world gotten that much better?
I know that earnings season is upon us and that Alcoa “beat” reduced expectations, and I see the financials on a tear. What I don’t see are millions of new jobs, huge consumption orders without direct stimulus (house purchase tax credit, cash for appliances, etc), or a great willingness to borrow or lend. I guess I could be too jaded, looking for a cloud every time I see silver.
I don’t take the auction of Greek 6 month notes as a positive, mainly because they needed to refinance one year bonds but felt the interest rate demanded would be too high. Too high for what? A profligate state that perpetually overspends and lies about it? What interest rate is too high for that?
2nd and 3rd quarter GDP estimates keep getting pared down. I read this morning (FT, I think) that 2.5% is a reasonable estimate. After the shelling the economy took in ‘08 and ‘09, for any type of recovery to be in place our growth rate should be 5-6% or higher. Our view is that the 2nd quarter number could come in lower, in the 1.5-2% range, and the 3rd quarter number could be close to flat or even negative.
I cannot explain the gyrations of the equity markets, what I can do is stay focused on the pillars of the economy, knowing that over time the problems that brought us to this point must be dealt with before we can move forward. Kicking the can perpetually down the road does not solve anything.
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