What Does Deflation Look Like? Just Ask Cities
So, cities are scrambling to deal w/ budget deficits, declining revenues, and rising payroll costs. The answer? Fire the people. ALL THE PEOPLE. I mentioned Maywood, CA last week, where the city has outsourced all work. Part of Maywood’s problem is that it cannot get insurance because of certain previous legal wranglings. But the answer – outsource all work – is intriguing other cities. The name of the game is to lower costs. The problem is that cities are realizing they have cut all easy stuff. Now they are on to the difficult cuts – people.
None of this is new. Anyone following the news will be aware of this at some level. My point in bringing this up is to highlight the fact that this is a case study in what a deflationary cycle looks like. The microcosm of the city gets its revenue (taxes) from specific streams – sales tax, property tax, fines, etc. The expenses are the needs of the entity, including the manpower necessary to run things. At this point, cities are having to cut the payments to the people in order to bring their costs in line with their revenue. The outsourcing that is taking place is a bit misleading because in many instance a contract service provider is simply taking over the employees, but paying them less.
This lower pay can be in the form of less weekly income, less benefits, or both, but that doesn’t matter. What does matter is that the employees are being forced to accept lower income than they previously earned for the same job. Of course they could quit and go elsewhere, but with unemployment around 10%, that’s a big gamble.
What will happen to the collective spending of these employees? What are the chances that they will ratchet up their borrowing and spending in order to push our economy higher?
Read the original story at H. S. Dent
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