Q2 GDP Revised Down from 2.4% To 1.6%, And Futures Rally
In the Bizzaro Superman world we live in where things mean their opposite, we shave almost a full percentage point off of the estimate of Q2 GDP growth and markets like it. The estimate had been a revision even lower, 1.2%-1.5%, so this print of 1.6% looks “positive.” For some reason, I prefer the real world, where our efforts at reviving the economy are failing spectacularly, having spent almost $4 trillion extra (stimulus, bailouts, and deficits) and all we have to show for it is a lousy, shrinking GDP.
I have been patient with policymakers, but that time has past. There must be recognition that the issues we face cannot be solved with more debt. An asset bubble must deflate, and will deflate. The question is, will we manage it lower the best we can, or hold on to a false hope of propping up the bubble only to watch it fail in a much bigger, more devatstating way down the road?
Look for Q2 GDP to be revised again next month, most likely close to 1.0%, or even lower.
The next big thing is Unemployment, coming next Friday (Sept 3rd). The estimate is for a loss of jobs of 60k-70k, however that includes the US government releasing 110k of census workers, so the net would be a gain of jobs of 40k-50k. If we are anywhere near negative 60k or less, the markets would most likely rally, because we live in Bizarro world. We need at least 100k of jobs created every month just to absorb the new workers entering the workforce. Anything less than 100k new jobs created will do nothing to start alleviating the pain of unemployment for roughly 15mm Americans.
Read the original story at H. S. Dent
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