The Inevitable
Here’s a cheery headline from today’s Financial Times: “Japan looks for positives as it succumbs to the inevitable.”
The article was in reference to China’s recent overtaking of Japan to become the second largest economy in the world after the United States. But given our research at HS Dent, it could be taken to mean so much more.
Japan is the oldest country in the world by median age of population, and this is only going to get worse. The population is already shrinking. The country desperately needs new babies for its future, but young Japanese do not have the means or perhaps the desire to have them. But even Japan commenced a new baby boom today, the damage has already been done by 30+ years of low birthrates.
Meanwhile, Japan’s debts continue to mount and today total more than 200% 0f GDP. How will these debts be paid? Who is going to care for Japan’s elderly in the years ahead? And what happens to a country that slowly grows old and dies?
These are unanswerable questions. But they point to an inevitable decline–and possible collapse.
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Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA
Co-author of the recently-published Boom or Bust: Understanding and Profiting from a Changing Consumer Economy
Read the original story at H. S. Dent
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