Our Dying Planet — Coral Reefs

Source: Decline of the Empire

Ecologist Peter Sale’s book Our Dying Planet was recently published by the University of California press.

Coral reefs are on track to become the first ecosystem actually eliminated from the planet. So says leading ecologist Peter F. Sale in this crash course on the state of the planet. Sale draws from his own extensive work on coral reefs, and from recent research by other ecologists, to explore the many ways we are changing the earth and to explain why it matters. Weaving into the narrative his own firsthand field experiences around the world, Sale brings ecology alive while giving a solid understanding of the science at work behind today’s pressing environmental issues. He delves into topics including overfishing, deforestation, biodiversity loss, use of fossil fuels, population growth, and climate change while discussing the real consequences of our growing ecological footprint.

Most important, this passionately written book emphasizes that a gloom-and-doom scenario is not inevitable, and as Sale explores alternative paths, he considers the ways in which science can help us realize a better future.

Yes, most importantly this passionate book emphasizes that a Gloom & Doom scenario is not inevitable. Otherwise, the book would never have been published. You’re not allowed—has this been codified into law?—to write an honest accounting of what humans are doing to the planet and why this destruction is very likely to continue. That is not permitted. Verboten!

Let’s stick with the likely scenario, Coral reefs ‘will be gone by end of the century’ by Andres Marszal in the UK newspaper The Independent.

[Peter Sale] says this [extinction] event will occur before the end of the present century, which means that there are children already born who will live to see a world without coral…

The predicted decline is mainly down to climate change and ocean acidification, though local activities such as overfishing, pollution and coastal development have also harmed the reefs. The book, Our Dying Planet, published by University of California Press, contains further alarming predictions, such as the prospect that “we risk having no reefs that resemble those of today in as little as 30 or 40 more years”.

“We’re creating a situation where the organisms that make coral reefs are becoming so compromised by what we’re doing that many of them are going to be extinct, and the others are going to be very, very rare,” Professor Sale says. “Because of that, they aren’t going to be able to do the construction which leads to the phenomenon we call a reef. We’ve wiped out a lot of species over the years. This will be the first time we’ve actually eliminated an entire ecosystem.”

Coral reefs are important for the immense biodiversity of their ecosystems. They contain a quarter of all marine species, despite covering only 0.1 per cent of the world’s oceans by area, and are more diverse even than the rainforests in terms of diversity per acre, or types of different phyla present [graphic below]

Click to enlarge

Coral reefs are very sensitive to temperature changes. The last time this story surfaced was in 2007, when a group of scientists published an article in Science discussing what would happen to the reefs under various temperature change scenarios. You remember 2007, right? In 2007 we were going to regulate emissions of heat-trapping gases and save the planet. Then the shit hit the fan in 2008, and now our attitude is screw the planet, we’ve got to get that economic growth engine running again. USA Today reported the story in Scientists: Global warming could kill coral reefs by 2050.

Rising carbon emissions might kill off the ocean’s coral reefs by 2050, scientists warn in today’s edition of the journal Science.

The review article, co-authored by 17 marine scientists in seven countries, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is the most comprehensive review so far of the catastrophic threat global warming poses to coral, and by extension many ocean species…

“We have created conditions on Earth unlike anything most species alive today have experienced in their evolutionary history. Corals are feeling the effects of our actions and it is now or never if we want to safeguard these marine creatures and the livelihoods that depend on them,” said Bob Steneck of the University of Maine and co-author of the paper.

The scientists provide three possible scenarios of what might happen to the world’s coral reefs, all based on the lower range predictions of atmospheric carbon dioxide given by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In the best-case scenario, carbon dioxide emissions are stabilized at today’s levels of 380 ppm. Coral reefs survive mostly intact.

In the midrange scenario, carbon dioxide levels rise to 450-500 ppm and the temperature goes up 3.6 degrees [fahrenheit, = 2°C]. Heat-tolerant forms of coral take over and reefs become significantly less diverse, with a decline in fish and other sea life.

In the worst scenario, carbon dioxide levels rise above 500 ppm and the temperature increases more than 5.4 degrees. At this point, the reefs crumble and half of sea life disappears. Red, brown and green algae take over, plankton blooms increase and water quality erodes. Today’s levels are rising quickly due to ever-larger amounts of fossil fuels being burned.

While coral expert Chris Langdon says it’s clear this trend looks bad for corals, he does say that to predict their total loss by some date is a little sensational. “There’s a chance that they’ll be able to adjust their physiology,” says the University of Miami marine biologist, who was not a contributor to the study.

Coral reefs are definitely in trouble, but it is indeed a little sensational to say that the entire ecosystem will disappear by a certain date. Perhaps only 90% of the world’s coral reefs will be gone by 2100. Good news!

That USA Today article contained a very interesting quote at the end. Remember, this was 2007. Hope was running high.

With overfishing, coastal development and the pollution it brings, bleaching and ocean acidification, the world’s coral reefs are undergoing enormous changes, says NOAA’s Billy Causey. “Coral will survive, but will it be in the forms we know?” he says.

One hope is that the worst-case global warming scenarios don’t have to go that way, says study co-author, Ken Caldeira, a professor of global ecology at the Carnegie Institution.

“It’s a much easier problem to handle than say Hitler,” he said. “We came into WWII with biplanes and came out of it with jet planes and integrated circuits. If our society actually perceived this as a threat, we could fairly easily mobilize and respond to it.”

I am dumbfounded. And this is not the first time climate scientist Ken Caldeira has left me speechless. It’s much easier to handle this problem than, say, Hitler. We could have “handled” Hitler with a single well-placed bullet. To solve the ocean warming problem, we’ll have to tear down industrial civilization.

Will wonders never cease?

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