US Recession Imminent! World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis
This article was originally published at Zero Hedge
As goes the world, so goes America (according to 30 years of historical data), and so when world trade volumes drop over 2% (the biggest drop since 2009) in the last six months to the weakest since June 2014, the “US recession imminent” canary in the coalmine is drawing her last breath…
As Wolf Street’s Wolf Richter adds, this isn’t stagnation or sluggish growth. This is the steepest and longest decline in world trade since the Financial Crisis. Unless a miracle happened in June, and miracles are becoming exceedingly scarce in this sector, world trade will have experienced its first back-to-back quarterly contraction since 2009.
Both of the measures above track import and export volumes. As volumes have been skidding, new shipping capacity has been bursting on the scene in what has become a brutal fight for market share [read… Container Carriers Wage Price War to Form Global Shipping Oligopoly].
Hence pricing per unit, in US dollars, has plunged 14% since May 2014, and nearly 20% since the peak in March 2011. For the months of March, April, and May, the unit price index has hit levels not seen since mid-2009.
World trade isn’t down for just one month, or just one region. It wasn’t bad weather or an election somewhere or whatever. The swoon has now lasted five months. In addition, the CPB decorated its report with sharp downward revisions of the prior months. And it isn’t limited to just one region. The report explains:
The decline was widespread, import and export volumes decreasing in most regions and countries, both advanced and emerging. Import and export growth turned heavily negative in Japan. Among emerging economies, Central and Eastern Europe was one of the worst performers.
Given these trends, the crummy performance of our heavily internationalized revenue-challenged corporate heroes is starting to make sense: it’s tough out there.
But not just in the rest of the world. At first we thought it might have been a blip, a short-term thing. Read… Americans’ Economic Confidence Gets Whacked
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Whistler Blowers, Insiders
We know that they are just fudging the numbers at this point. I don’t mean the data that is listed in this report there are pockets of the financial market where they simply cannot hide the truth but they are playing with the data that can be manipulated and suppressed. I was watching a report on the housing market and just yesterday said the housing market was down for June, today its up for June, up – down its like they change their report every other day without anything being conclusive….. The point I’m trying to make is that there is only so much boloney they can sell to the masses before everyone is on board with the tampering of the stock market unfortunately by then it will be game over. When we hear the MSM announce that the country is “officially” in a recession its a sure bet that a greater than great depression or a larger than life event is imminent and already would have materialized So many things don’t add up about this market, this economy, and the whole enchilada just reeks to high heaven. Who would believe anything this “yahoo” of government would have to say at this point about the fiscal health of this country? Yes, the canary in the coal mine is dead!