First Look at Projected S&P 500 Quarterly Dividends Through 2022

We now have quarterly dividend futures data for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) through the end of 2022. Here’s what the future looked like as of the close of trading on 20 September 2021:

The past and projected data shown in this chart is from the CME Group’s S&P 500 quarterly dividend index futures. The past data reflects the values reported by CME Group on the date the associated dividend futures contract expired, while the projected data reflects the values reported on 20 September 2021. Until the futures contracts for their indicated quarter expire, projected dividends will fluctuate with changing expectations of the future for the index’ dividends per share.

Readers should note these projections indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarters dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter’s dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the “current” quarter of 2021-Q4 began on Saturday, 18 September 2021 and will end on Friday, 17 December 2021.

That makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures reported by Standard and Poor, who reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.