Spatial Equilibrium and Haitian Immigration to the U.S

 Politico reports on the policy challenge that the Biden Administration faces.  There are thousands of Haitian immigrants living in squalid conditions under the Del Rio International Bridge.

A dynamic incentives issue arises.  If the Biden Administration engages in humane policies to help these immigrants then this will attract more immigrants to move to the area as they will anticipate that they will be treated well.  If the Biden Administration is tough on this group, then the group suffers and the Biden Administration angers its progressive wing and immigrant children will suffer.

Spatial equilibrium logic is crucial here.  The immigrants have taken a gamble.  They have compared the expected benefits of migrating to the U.S with the costs of doing so.  The costs include what they leave behind in their home nation (in this case Haiti) and the migration costs they incur.  The expected benefits depend on the probability that they will actually enter the U.S and the probability that they will not be deported to their origin and the financial and emotional gains they and their family will enjoy if they actually live and work in the U.S.

Spatial Equilibrium logic offers several constructive ideas here.  Potential immigrants will move to the U.S when their expected lifetime utility in the U.S exceeds their expected lifetime utility from remaining in Haiti net of migration costs (including lost social networks).

This model makes several predictions and offers insights;

1. Economic development in the home country would slow down migration to the U.S.

2.  If the U.S could commit to being tough on illegal immigrants and have a process for legally migrating to the U.S, more potential immigrants would pursue this path.  

3. There should be an orderly process so that Haitian-Americans can sponsor a new migrant to move to the country.  This is an idea in the Posner and Weyl book.  The idea is presented and debated here.   

4.  The ugly living conditions at the Del Rio Bridge represent a type of tax on illegal migration.  Unlike a typical tax, no revenue is received.  Gary Becker endorsed a U.S passport market for auctioning off such passports.  The progressive Biden Administration is wrestling with the allocation of valuable property.  Economists such as Becker support using markets to allocate this scarce resource.

5.  U.S politician nudges saying “stay home” represent Cheap Talk and won’t slow the flow.

6. If climate change differentially injures Haiti as compared to the U.S (because a richer nation is better able to adapt), then this issue will only grow in importance in the future. The U.S must begin to think through how climate change adaptation affects migration patterns. In this blog post, I offer some adaptive ideas.

In China, there is a Hukoo domestic passport system that limits where floating workers can receive government services. This approach creates a system of “insiders and outsiders” that allows a mayor of a city such as Shanghai to treat his poor residents better because unlike in the U.S , he anticipates that his actions do not have a “welfare magnet” effect because other poor residents in other areas cannot arbitrage the spatial variation in generosity towards the poor by moving from a poor city to a rich city.   What can the U.S learn from this system?  When are entry barriers good?