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The Bottom Drops Out of the S&P 500

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Do you remember 3 January 2022? On the first trading day of the year, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) closed at an all-time record high of 4,796.56.

Since then, the index has fallen by 398.62 points (or 8.3%), with two-thirds of that decline in the past week. On the alternative futures chart, that drop during the past week looks like bottom dropping out with the trajectory of the S&P 500 shooting below the dividend futures-based model‘s lowest projections for this period.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2022Q1 - Standard Model (m=-2.5 from 16 June 2021) - Snapshot on 21 Jan 2022

On a side note, it’s not just this chart showing the bottom dropping out of the S&P 500. We have another chart that will better drive that point home, which we’ll present in a separate analysis.

Since Friday, 21 January 2022 saw atypically large values of options expiring, the jury is still out on how much noise that contributed to the market’s action, so we’re paying especially close attention to the new week’s trading activity. With that event in the past, we should get a clearer signal on where stock prices are heading in short order.

We’re also paying attention to how we might need to reset the level of the dividend future model’s multiplier, which is something we’ve anticipated since December 2021 might become necessary with the Federal Reserve altering its monetary policies. That’s in addition to paying attention to the market-moving headlines as they hit the newstreams, where we noted the following stories in the past week.

Tuesday, 18 January 2022
  • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Bigger trouble developing in Australia, Eurozone, Canada, Mexico:
  • Bigger stimulus developing in China, Germany:
  • Germany to help companies shoulder higher power costs
  • BOJ minions on board with inflation, ECB minions standing by to someday leap into action:
  • Wall St sinks as yields spike, financials fall after Goldman miss
  • Wednesday, 19 January 2022
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Bigger inflation developing in France, UK, Japan, Canada, Russia:
  • Bigger stimulus developing in China:
  • Wall Street sell-off deepens, Nasdaq confirms correction
  • President Biden’s press conference goes very badly, in a way that might lead oil prices to spike and hurt the economy:
  • Thursday, 20 January 2022
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions thinking about tomorrow:
  • Bigger stimulus developing in China:
  • ECB minions counting on inflation going away on its own:
  • Wall Street drops as bargain-hunting tapers off
  • Friday, 21 January 2022
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Aluminum cans to jet fuel: inflation dominates U.S. corporate earnings
  • Treasury Secretary tries gaslighting to save failing Biden policy proposals:
  • Bigger stimulus developing in China:
  • BOJ minions notice inflation, will think about stuff they can do about it:
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq post worst weeks since pandemic start as Netflix woes deepen slide
  • As of 21 January 2022, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool projects quarter point rate hikes in March 2022 (2022-Q1), June (2022-Q2), July (2022-Q3), and December (2022-Q4).




    Source: https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-bottom-drops-out-of-s-500.html


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