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New PPI data indicate the possibility for the CPI inflation to drop below 7% per year in November

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The BLS released new PPI data showing the drop in the inflation rate of PPI for final demand from 8.1% in October to 7.4% in November. The (seasonally adjusted) PPI increased from 140.637 in October to 140.795 in November. Figure 1 compares the PPI inflation with that of the CPI. One can see that the two curves started to diverge in 2020. The PPI curve demonstrates a fast fall since 2022Q1 when it reached its peak of 11.6%. The CPI curve started to fall in July and currently chasing the PPI curve as it falls below the zero line. The BLS will release the CPI data on Dec 13. The expected value of the CPI inflation for the 12 months that ended in November is below 7% with the October level of 7.8%. 
Figure 1. Comparison of the CPI and PPI (FD) inflation rates after 2010


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