Renter Nation

After saying Iran wanted a peace deal 39 times (when it apparently didn’t), Trump finally got one. Not a treaty, but an MOU. It seems like a return to where we were before US taxpayers funded a $30 billion escapade and a global energy crisis ensued.

Nonetheless, peace beats war. Trump will claim victory in defeat. And markets don’t care what she looks like, so long as she can dance.

Oil plunged almost 5% this morning. Stocks popped higher. Gas, jet fuel and diesel dropped – all happening on the same day the New Guy took over at the Fed, just in time for a rate announcement on Wednesday.

Kevin Warsh is Trump’s pick. The president wants lower interest rates to bolster trade, reduce debt charges and paper over family financial struggles. Warsh can’t deliver right now, with inflation raging higher and the lingering effects of the Middle East war. But we’re closer than we were on Friday.

And all this may affect the price of a house in Canada. In fact, it seems assured.

Trump desperately wants the Iran mess behind him and is unlikely to bomb again. Everybody knows lots more TACO will be headed our way, which is why Mr. Market is reacting strongly to a lame, unenforceable MOU. By the end of today the Dow could be at a fresh record high. The Nasdaq is on meth.

While Warsh can’t possibly drop rates this week, he can start talking about cheaper money, reference the ceasefire deal and till the soil for a cut later in 2026. Suddenly we’ll be in a different economic mindset. Soaring financial markets. Falling energy prices. Lower bond yields. Anticipated rate cut. An end to this war. Reasons for confidence.

Since real estate moves on emotion – and because we’ve just gone through three years of price declines, mortgage rate reductions and enhanced buyer incentives – June 15th, 2026 could be the low point in this cycle. Dunno. Just sayin’.

There are also apparently demographic reasons to think Canadian real estate is truly at low tide. StatsCan tells us  homeownership is rapidly falling out of favour among those who traditionally gobble it up – people in their 30s.

When the Boomers were that age only 8% of them were living at home and 56% owned real estate. As for GenXers, in that stage of life 12% were at home and today 16% of Millennials live with Mom. In their thirties, 75% of Boomers were married or with a partner. Today that number is 62%. In 1991 33% of Boomers owned a single-family home. Now it’s 19%.

Yes, real estate has swollen in price, even as financing costs have fallen. Houses are less affordable, cost a helluva of a lot more to own and maintain and are harder to sell. Lately real estate has been a drag on net worth as equity vanishes and the average age of a first-time buyer soars to 40 years.

So, if sacrificing for a house means disposable income is sucked away while the potential of capital gains fades and decades of debt payments loom, why do it? Renting’s far cheaper. It’s more flexible. Leasing instead of owning lets people save and invest for life goals, like financing kids or retirement. It means you can move easily for career advancement or less snow. No realtors, property taxes, monthly fees, roof repairs or MLS.

After all, if the era of guaranteed house price gains is behind us as the universe of willing real estate buyers shrinks, why lock yourself into a mortgage and an address? That’s so… Boomery.

Says an industry blog:

“The writing is on the wall for tomorrow’s housing market. With fewer and fewer homeowners, Canada is slowly but surely becoming a renter’s domain. We already see the pivot in development and construction away from condos (which dominated the market in the Greater Toronto Area for over 20 years) and towards purpose-built rentals. We are set to become a population of renters rather than owners. This means that potential buyers and real estate investors should act before it’s too late!”

If you buy this logic, then snap up available homes at current prices before valuations soar and inventory shrinks. After all, why would developers add more housing stock when demand is falling? If this day – Trump Victory (Sort Of, Maybe) Over Iran Day – is the market trough, the advice is sound. Mortgage rates may decline. The feds have slashed new home taxes. Housing starts are falling.

So, investors are being encouraged to move back in, Hoover up available inventory and get ready for a Renter Nation to provide stable long-term cash flow.

There is some sense to this. The current crash in housing starts foretells a future shortage and pressure on prices. At the same time it’s impossible to justify buying a so-so urban abode for $1.7 million and that could destroy a family’s ability to finance their kids’ education or seriously delay the day you can stop working.

And lost in all the talk of macroeconomics is simple nesting desire. People want to live in places they control and consider eternal. It’s a North American thing. It worked for a few generations. It may or may not work now. But it’s real.

Renting shouldn’t mean shaming. We’re not there yet.

About the picture: “Ellie was featured on your blog about a year and a half ago,” writes Ward, in Toronto, “and I think this cutie deserves a second appearance!”

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Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/06/15/renter-nation/