So After Everything That Has Transpired, Now We Go All The Way Back To Square One With Iran
There seems to be a tremendous amount of confusion about what has just transpired. The United States and Iran have not agreed to a permanent peace deal. What the United States and Iran have agreed to is a 60 day ceasefire extension and the beginning of a 60 day period of negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program. This “memorandum of understanding” essentially puts us into a position that is very similar to where we were just prior to the start of the war. Before the war began traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was flowing normally, there was no U.S. naval blockade, and we were engaged in complicated negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program. The “memorandum of understanding” gets us back to that point, but it also gives the Iranians a bonus of having $25,000,000,000 in frozen assets released. So we are all the way back to square one with Iran, the only difference being that now the Iranian regime has access to a whole lot more money.
The Iranian nuclear program was the main reason we went to war, and nothing has been resolved on that front.
All of the really sticky issues are still there.
So I don’t understand why everyone is so excited.
In the end, the Iranians are never going to agree to do what the United States and Israel want them to do.
And now since the Iranians will have an extra 25 billion dollars to play around with, they will have much less incentive to compromise.
But at least for today, the world is rejoicing.
Just a little while ago, the Iranians confirmed that they have agreed to the final text of the memorandum of understanding…
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Ghribabadi said the immediate and permanent end of the war and military operations on multiple fronts, including Lebanon, will be announced starting tonight.
He added that negotiations on a final agreement between Tehran and Washington would take place over a 60-day period.
“The text of the memorandum of understanding will be published shortly, and the public will be able to see Iran’s achievements and commitments,” he said. “Our commitments are not comparable to our gains.”
Everybody is so giddy about this.
But if the original ceasefire didn’t stop the fighting, why should we believe that a 60 day extension of that ceasefire will stop the fighting?
Everyone has been violating the original ceasefire over and over again.
For example, in recent days Hezbollah has just kept firing rockets into northern Israel. In response, the IDF hit more than 70 different Hezbollah targets in Lebanon on Saturday…
The Israel Defense Forces on Saturday said it struck over 70 Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon, targeting rocket launchers and buildings allegedly used by the terror group to advance attacks, after the army issued evacuation warnings for over 20 locations.
The military added that it killed several Hezbollah operatives identified in areas of southern Lebanon where troops were operating.
Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported airstrikes in several areas covered by the evacuation warnings, including the villages of Rihan and Sujud, located not far from the city of Nabatieh, which is considered to be a Hezbollah stronghold.
Then on Sunday, the IDF conducted an airstrike in southern Beirut…
The Israel Defense Forces struck Beirut on Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz announced in a joint statement.
The IDF said in a statement that it “precisely struck a Hezbollah infrastructure site in Dahieh, Beirut.” The army later described the site as a command center “used by Hezbollah terrorists to advance terrorist attacks against the citizens of the State of Israel and IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon.”
The IDF said it used precise munitions and aerial surveillance as part of an effort to “mitigate harm to civilians.”
In the aftermath of the IDF airstrike in southern Beirut, President Trump was extremely upset…
Trump once again expressed immense frustration with the leader of one of America’s closest allied nations, Israel, as he prepared to celebrate his birthday at the White House this evening.
The President claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ‘no f***ing judgment,’ according to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, who shared parts of his Sunday conversation with the President on X.
Ravid also claimed on X that President Trump told him, ‘Why did Bibi have to do a f***ing attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no f***ing judgement. I let him know that.’
Does Trump really believe that using profanity will stop the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah?
The truth is that nothing is going to stop the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
And every time it flares up, the Iranians will have a convenient excuse for not fulfilling their commitments under the memorandum of understanding.
When the original ceasefire was announced, Trump boldly proclaimed that the Strait of Hormuz would be immediately reopened.
Needless to say, that never actually happened.
Now he is telling us the exact same thing again…
US President Donald Trump has announced that America and Iran have reached an agreement to end the conflict after just under three and a half months.
‘The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!’ Trump wrote on his social media site, Truth Social, on Sunday evening.
‘I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!,’ Trump added in his post.
We are supposed to believe that the Iranians really mean in this time.
We shall see.
I have a feeling that Iran will continue to use fighting between Israel and Hezbollah as an excuse to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
And even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen tomorrow, it would take months for traffic to be fully restored.
Of course the status of the Strait of Hormuz is not what this war was all about.
What this war was supposedly all about was Iran’s nuclear program, and the 60 day period for negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program will not even begin until the memorandum of understanding is signed…
* Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons.
* Pending a final agreement, Iran would maintain the current status of its nuclear programme, refraining from further uranium enrichment and expansion of nuclear facilities.
* The United States agrees to allow Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on Iranian soil under a future comprehensive agreement.
* Iran’s nuclear programme, uranium enrichment activities and mechanisms for handling its stockpile of highly enriched uranium would be negotiated within 60 days of the memorandum and addressed in a final agreement.
Even if the Iranians were willing to negotiate in good faith, we are being told that it would almost certainly take longer than 60 days to reach a final deal…
Former Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on Sunday said that a 60-day timeframe outlined in a draft peace plan for the U.S. and Iran to negotiate the Tehran’s nuclear program is a “pretty short period of time.”
Sherman poured cold water on the emerging peace deal while speaking with Martha Raddatz on ABC’s “This Week,” stressing that she hoped “there will be a signing sometime soon, and at least we’ll start trade movement and prices over some months will come down.”
Personally, I think that the Iranians are buying time.
They know that elections in Israel and the U.S. will happen before the end of this calendar year, and they are convinced that the outcome of those elections will shift the status quo in their favor.
So they are trying to stretch talks out for as long as possible.
And I think that the Trump administration is desperate to get out of this war and move on to other things.
But no matter how hard the negotiators may try, there isn’t going to be peace in the Middle East.
President Trump has publicly admitted that the original ceasefire was the most violated ceasefire in history, and those that are expecting this ceasefire extension to be some sort of a miracle cure are going to be deeply disappointed.
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